Mafuta Mafuta Aigona Sei Kuwedzera Pamusoro $ 200 neBharrel
Muna March 2018, mutengo wenyika yose wakaenzana $ 66 / b. Izvozvo zviri shure nekurova kwenguva pfupi $ 70 / b munaJanuary. Mitengo yakatsvaga apo vatengesi vakapindura musangano weNovember 30, 2017, OPEC . Nhengo dzamafuta engorozi dzakabvumirana kuchengetedza kushandiswa kwemichero kuburikidza ne 2018.
Mafuta emafuta aiva anenge katatu pasi re13-ra $ 26.55 / b musi waJanuary 20, 2016. Mwedzi mitanhatu isati yasvika, mutengo waiva $ 60 / b. Gore rakapera munaJune 2014, vainge vari $ 100.26 / b. Nezviitiko zvakasiyana-siyana zvinochinja zvinokonzera mutengo wemafuta wezuva ranhasi, unochinja zuva nezuva.
Pane zvikamu zviviri zvemafuta asina kuchena anoshumira sezvikwereti zvemamwe mafuta emafuta. West Texas Intermediate inobva, uye ndiyo inofanirwa, United States. Brent North Sea mafuta inobva kuNorth West-Europe, uye ndiyo inofanirwa kutengeswa kwenyika. Mutengo webhari yeWTI mafuta ine $ 4 / b pasi kupfuura Brent mitengo. Muna December 2015, musiyano waiva $ 2 / b. Izvozvo zvakanga zvakanaka mushure mekunge Congress yakabvisa makore makumi mana ekudambidzwa kwemaAmerican kunze kwenyika.
EIA inofanirwa kuti mafuta eWTI achasvika $ 59 / b muna 2018. Vatengesi vemabhizimisi vanofananidzawo mutengo wamafuta mune ramangwana ravo zvibvumirano. Vanofanotaura kuti mutengo weWTI unogona kuva kupi kubva $ 52 / b kusvika $ 78 / b munaJuly 2018.
Zvikonzero Zvina Zvokuda Kwemafuta Mafuta
Mitengo yave isinganzwisisiki kuonga kushandura mumafuta. Mafuta emafuta anoshandiswa kuva nenguva inofanirwa kuitika gore. Vakaputira mukati megore, sezvo vatengesi veirimi vaitarisira kudiwa kukuru kwekufambisa kwekufambisa kwezororo. Pane imwechete inoda kudiwa, iyo mitengo inodonha mukuwa uye munguva yechando.
Saka nei mafuta emafuta asingachazivikanwi? Indasitiri yemafuta yakachinja nenzira mina dzinokosha.
Chokutanga, kubudisa kweSaile mafuta uye mamwe mafuta, ethanol, akatanga kuwedzera muna 2015 . Iko US fuel production yaiva mamiriyoni gumi nemamiriyoni / zuva muna 2018. EIA inofungidzira kuti ichasvika 10,7 mamiriyoni b / d muna 2018, yepamusoro-soro yegore roga roga mukugadzirwa mumusangano weUnited States. Icho chichange chakarova rekodhi rekare re 9,6 mamiriyoni b / d rakagadzwa muna 1970. Kugadzirwa kwakagadzirwa zvikamu 9,3 mamiriyoni b / d muna 2017. EIA inotarisa kuti kubudisa mafuta kunowanzosvika 11,4 mamiriyoni b / d muna 2019.
Sei United States ichibereka mafuta akawanda pamitambo yakaderera kare? Vakawanda vanogadzira mafuta vanogadzira mafuta vanoshanda zvakanyanya pakubudisa mafuta. Vakawana nzira dzekuchengetedza matsime akazaruka, achivaponesa mari yekutora. Panguva imwecheteyo, matsime makuru emafuta muGulf akatanga kubudisa zvizhinji. Havana kukwanisa kumira kushandiswa kwezvinhu zvisinei nokuti mitengo yepasi yakaderera. Somugumisiro, mabhizimisi makuru emabhizimisi emitambo akamira achiongorora kutsva kwezvitsva. Makambani aya anosanganisira Exxon-Mobil, BP, Chevron, uye Royal Dutch Shell. Zvainge zvisingadhuri kuti vatenge michina shoma shoma shale yekambani.
I International Energy Administration inofanotaura kuti United States ichava guru guru rekugadzira mafuta muna 2023.
Indasitiri yemafuta yeUnited States ichakura zvakaringana kuti iwane imba yekuda. Kuti uite kudaro, inofanirwa kuwana huyero yakakodzera. Iko inofanira kuwedzera kugovera zvishoma nezvishoma kuchengetedza mitengo yakakwana zvakakwana kubhadhara kuwedzera kuongororwa.
Chechipiri, OPEC yakaderedza zvigadzirwa kuti iise pasi pasi pematengo. Musi waNovember 30, 2016, nhengo dzayo dzakabvumirana kutema michero ne 1.2 mamiriyoni b / d munaJanuary 2017. Mutengo wakatanga kubuda mushure mekuzivisa kweOOPEC. Musi waNovember 30, 2017, OPEC yakabvumirana kuti ienderere mberi kupera kwekugadzira kusvika muna 2018.
OPEC inoderedza kukohwa kwekugadzira kusvika ku 32.5 mamiriyoni b / d. IEIA inofungidzira kuti OPEC ichabudisa mamiriyoni 32,8 b / d muna 2018. Asi mazamu acho ose ari akakwirira kudarika gore ra2015 mamiriyoni 32.32 b / d.
Munharaunda yayo yose, OPEC yakarongedza michina yekuchengetedza mari ye $ 70 / b inotarisirwa. Muna 2014, yakasiya mutemo uyu.
Saudi Arabia, iyo huru yeOOPEC yakakosha, yakaderedza mutengo wayo kune vatengi vayo muna October 2014. Yakanga isingadi kurasikirwa nemugove wezvokutengeserana kumusangano wayo, Iran . Izvozvi mhirizhonga yenyika mbiri dzinobva pakurwisana pakati peSunni neShiite mapazi eIslam. Iran yakavimbisa kuwedzera kaviri mairi emafuta kunze kwenyika kusvika mamiriyoni 2,4 b / d kana chirango chikasimudzwa. Sangano rekuchengetedza nyukliya ra2015 rakasimudzira zvigaro zvezvematongerwo enyika ra2010 uye rakabvumira Saudi Arabia kurwisana nemafuta zvakare kunze kwe 2016.
Saudi Arabia zvakare yakanga isingadi kurasikirwa nemusika ku US shale oil producers. Zvinotengesa kuti mitengo yakaderera ingamanikidza vashandi vakawanda veUnited States kusiya bhizinesi uye kuderedza kukwikwidza kwayo. Zvaiva zvakanaka. Pakutanga, varairi vese vanowana nzira dzekuchengetedza mafuta kupemha. Kutenda kuwedzerwa kweUnited States, kuda kweOOPEC mafuta kwakawira kubva pamamiriyoni makumi matatu nemaviri b / d muna 2014 kusvika kune mamiriyoni 29 b / d muna 2015. Asi dhora rakasimba raireva nyika dzeOOPEC dzingaramba dzichibhadhara pamitengo yepasi. Panzvimbo pokurasikirwa nemugove wemari, OPEC yakachengetedza zvigadzirwa zvayo pamamiriyoni 30 b / d.
Nhamba dzakaderera dzakagadzira 2016 US mafuta ekugadzirwa kwemafuta kusvika 8,9 mamiriyoni b / d. Vashoma vanoita shale vashandi vanocheka kana kuti vakatengwa kunze. Izvozvo zvakaderedzwa zvakapoteredzwa zvakapoteredza 10 kubva muzana, zvichigadzira chikafu uye kuputika mu US shale mafuta .
Chechitatu, vatengesi vemabhizimisi vatorwa vanofambisa kukosha kwedhora iri ne25 muzana muna 2014 uye 2015 . Zvose zvinotengeswa nemafuta zvinobhadharwa muUS $. Iko dhora rakasimba rakabatsira chikonzero chekunamata kwemazana makumi manomwe kubva mumatengo ekutsvaga mafuta ekutengesera nyika. Mafuta akawanda-anotumira nyika anotora mari yavo kudhora. Nokudaro, 25 muzana inowedzera muodhora inokanganisa 25 muzana inodonhedzwa mutengo wemafuta. Kusava nechokwadi kwepasi rose chimwe chinhu chinokonzera dhora reAmerica .
Kukosha kwechiroro kwave kuri kuitika kubva munaDisemba 2016, maererano neDXY interactive chati. Musi waDecember 11, 2016, USDX yaiva 102.95. Mukutanga kwegore ra2017, hedge mari yakatanga kupedzisa dhora sezvo hupfumi hweEurope hwakagadziridzwa. Apo euro yakasimuka, dollar yakawa. Nenguva yaApril 11, 2018, yakanga yawa kusvika ku89.53.
Chechina, kudiwa kwenyika yose kwakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma kupfuura kutarisirwa . Iyo yakasimuka kusvika ku 93.3 mamiriyoni b / d muna 2015, kubva pa 92.4 mamiriyoni b / d muna 2014, maererano neIEA. Kuwanda kwekuwedzera kwakabva kuChina , iyo ikozvino inodya 12 muzana yepasi rose kubudisa mafuta. Sezvo kuchinja kwehupfumi kwaro kwakaderedza kukura kwayo , pasi rose kuwedzera kukura kunogona kuramba kuchidzikira.
Mafuta Price Forecast 2025 uye 2050
Pakazosvika 2025, muvhareji wemutengo weBrent mafuta asina kuchena achasimudzirwa kusvika ku $ 85.70 / b (muna 2017 madhora, ayo anobvisa kukanganisa kwekuwedzera kwezvinhu). Pakazosvika 2030, nyika inotarisirwa ichaita kuti mitengo yemafuta iwedzere kusvika ku $ 92.82 / b. Pakazosvika 2040, mutengo uchava $ 106.08 / b (zvakare muna madhora 2017). Nenguva iyo, mafuta mashoma emafuta achave apera, zvichiita kuti zvive zvakadhura kubvisa mafuta. Pakazosvika 2050, mutengo wemafuta uchava $ 113.56 / b, maererano neTeresi 12 yeEIA's Annual Energy Outlook's References. IEIA yakaderedza matengo ayo kubva mugore ra2017, ichiratidzira kugadzika kwemashamba emafuta emafuta.
Pakazosvika 2022, United States ichava mutevedzeri wemagetsi ekutengeserana, kutumira zvinopfuura izvo zvinotengeswa. Ive yakange iri mutengesi wemagetsi wekushandisa kubva muna 1953. Kubudisa mafuta kunokwira kusvikira 2020, apo kushandiswa kwemafuta kwemafuta kuchakwira kumativi anenge mamiriyoni 12 b / d. Shale ichaita 65 muzana yemafuta ekuUnited States.
Nzira dze EIA dzinogona kuchinja mukupindura mitemo nemitemo mitsva. Semuenzaniso, izvo zvinotarisirwa hazvisati zvichatora Simba reHurumende rekuchenesa. Mitemo yakawanda yehurumende, yakadai seRegion Greenhouse Gas Initiative, inokanganisa zvakatemwa. Mitemo yepasi rose iyo inogadzirisa kukonzerwa kwezvikepe zvegungwa-gungwa zvakare yakabatanidzwa muhutano.
EIA inotora kuti kudikanwa kwepetroleum kunoshandiswa kunze kwekushanda kwezvinhu zvinotsigira zvakawanda pane gasi rechisiki uye simba rinogona kushandiswa. Inotorawo kuti hupfumi hunokura kusvika 2 muzana gore negore, kana simba rekushandisa rinowedzera 0,4 muzana pagore. IEIA inewo huporofita hwezvimwe zvinogona kuitika.
Mafuta Mafuta Aigona Sei Kuwedzera Pamusoro $ 200 neBharrel
Mafuta eOiri akazosvika kure rekodhi yakadarika madhora 145 / b muna 2008 uye aiva $ 100 / b muna 2014. Ndiyo apo inonzi Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development inofanirwa kuti mutengo weBrent mafuta unogona kusvika zvakadarika $ 270 / b ne2020. Inotarisa kutaura kwayo pamusoro pekutsvaga kwekutsvaga kubva kuChina nemamwe mazai anotengesa. Mitengo iyi yakakwirira inoita seisingaoneki iye zvino mafuta ehule ave avapo.
Pfungwa yemafuta pa $ 200 / b inoratidzika sedambudziko kune nzira yehupenyu yeAmerica. Asi vanhu vari muEuropean Union vaibhadhara mari yakaenzana ne $ 250 / b kwemakore nekuda kwemitero yakakwirira. Izvozvo hazvina kumisa EU kuti ive yechitatu yepamusoro-soro yevatengi vemafuta. Chero bedzi vanhu vane nguva yekugadzirisa, vachawana nzira dzokurarama nematengo akakwirira eiri.
2020 makore maviri chete, asi tarisa kuti mari inotyisa yakave iri mumakore gumi apfuura, kubva pakati pe $ 26.55 / b uye $ 145 / b. Kana zvakakwaniwa nevarimi vemafuta vanobva kunze kwebhizimisi, uye Iran haibvumi zvarinotaura zvinogona, zvigaro zvingadzokera kumatongerwe emakore ekudarika $ 70- $ 100 mubhazi . OPEC iri kuverenga pairi.
OECD inobvuma kuti mitengo yepamusoro yeoiri inononoka kuwedzera kwehupfumi uye kuderera kunowedzera. Mafuta emafuta akakwirira anogona kuita kuti "kudai kuparadzwa." Kana mitengo yakakwirira inopera kwenguva yakakwana, vanhu vanochinja maitiro avo ekutenga. Kuda kuparadzwa kwakaitika mushure mekunge kushamiswa kwemafuta kwe1979. Mitengo yeiriiri yakaramba ichiderera kwemakore anenge matanhatu. Vakagumburwa apo kuda kwaidiwa uye kugoverwa kwakabatwa.
Mafuroti emafuta anogona kuvhara mutengo wepamusoro kana vachitya nezvekushayikwa kwemazuva ano. Ndizvo zvakaitika kumatengo emagetsi muna 2008 . Vatengesi vaityisa kuti kuChina kudai kwemafuta kwaizotora. Vatengesi vakaendesa matengo emafuta kune rekodhi $ 145 / b. Izvo zvaityisa zvakanga zvisina kukwana, sezvo nyika yakakurumidza kupinda mumatambudziko uye kudiwa kwemafuta kwakadonha.
Ramba uchifunga kuti chero kushayikwa kunoonekwa kunogona kuita kuti vatengesi vasavhunduka uye zvigadziriswe. Kukanganisa kunonzwisisika kunogona kukonzerwa nemupupuriro, kutyisidzira kwehondo mune nzvimbo dzinoshandiswa mafuta-kutengesa, kana kunatswa kwekunatsa. Asi mitengo inosvika pakuenzanisa munguva refu. Izvi ndezvokuti kugovera ndeimwe yezvinhu zvitatu zvinokonzera mitengo yemafuta .