Kutarisa nhoroondo ye DJIA uye nei zvingave zvisina kunaka nhasi
Sei, saka, iyo Dow Jones Industrial Average inowanikwa yakakurumbira? Chii chinoita kuti DJIA ishure? Iyi mibvunzo mikuru uye, mumaminitsi mashomanana anotevera, ndinoda kutora nguva yekukupa imwe nhoroondo iyo inogona kupa kunzwisisa kwakasimba kweiyi inchronism yakauya kutonga kwete chete mari yezvemari kunze kwepfungwa huru yevanhu kana yakauya kune mahomwe akafanana.
Chokutanga, ngatimbokurukurai zvaunenge uchiziva nezveDow
The DJIA , pakati pezvimwe zvinhu ...
- Kukosha kweDIAIA kunoverengerwa kushandiswa kwechinyorwa chinoenderana nemutengo wemugove wezvikamu zvezvikamu zvayo panzvimbo yeimwe metric yakafanana nemari yemari kana yekutengeserana ;
- Vanyori veThe Wall Street Journal vanofunga kuti makambani anowanikwa muDow Jones Industrial Average.
- Zvimwe zvenhema pamusoro pezvakaitika mumakore ekutengeserana, kana zvisiri zvemathematical kukanganisa kwakaitika kare kare munhoroondo yeDow iyo yakaderera kushanda, DJIA yava kuda kusvika makumi matatu nemakumi matatu, kwete 20 000 rekodhi iyo yakapera munguva pfupi yapfuura. Saizvozvowo, kana vanyori veThe Wall Street Journal vasati vasarudza kubvisa International Business Machines (IBM) kubva pane zvinyorwa zvinyorwa chete kuti vawedzere zvakare mumakore nemakore gare gare, Dow Jones Industrial Average ingangove inenge kaviri inokosha yezvino. Asi imwezve muenzaniso ndeyezvinyorwa zvinowanzodzokororwa, kazhinji zvakasungirirwa kune vanhu vachitaura nezvekuchengetedzwa kwekusarura pasina kunzwisisa zvakananga zvechiitiko ichocho, kuti ruzhinji rwezvikamu zvepakutanga zveDow Jones Industrial Average zvakaguma zvisingakwanisi, izvo zvisiri chokwadi . Nokubatana pamwe nekuwana, kutenga uye kubata mubhadhari uyo akawana Dow yekutanga uye akagara pane zvake shure akadzoka zvakakwana zvakadzoka zvakakwana pamusana uye akazoguma ane chikwereti chakanaka chakanaka .
Zvinofadza kuti, pasinei nekukanganisa kwayo, kwenguva refu , Dow Jones Industrial Average yakave netsika inonakidza yekurova S & P 500 iyo inoretically yakagadzirwa pasinei nezvinofungwa nevamwe kuti ndezvayo zvakakosha zvikanganiso zvayo sezvazvakavakwa.
Ngationgororei pfupi-kuuya kweDow pane nyaya-by-case basis
Kuti unzwisise zviri nani kutsoropodzwa kweDow Jones Industrial Average, zvinogona kutibatsira kwatiri kufamba nemunhu mumwe nomumwe.
Kugunun'una 1: Dow Jones Industrial Average's emphasis on nominal share price pane kutengeserana mari yepamusoro kana kukosha kwekutengeserana zvinoreva kuti inonyanya kusanzwisisika sezvo inogona kuguma mune zvikamu zvine uwandu husingaenzaniswi nehuwandu hwavo hwehupfumi huri pakati peumwe.
Kutaura chokwadi, hapana zvakawanda zvinodzivirira iyi seye pfungwa yekuongororwa kwetsva inofanira kuongororwa nemutengo wemashesi, iyo inogona kuchinjwa kuburikidza nehupfumi husina maturo inoparadzaniswa , inofadza chaizvo. Mashoko akanaka ndeokuti, kare kare, hazvina kuita mutsauko wakawanda mumataurirwo anobatsira pasinei nokuti hapana chivimbo chekuti ramangwana richadzokorora sezvazvakaita munguva yakapfuura.
Imwe nzira iyo murimi wekutsvaga angakunda iyi ingange iri kuvaka dare rekusimudza raive neine makambani ose muDow Jones Industrial Average, kuiremedza ivo zvakaenzana, uye ezvo zvino zvikamu zvinowanikwa zvakare maererano nedzimwe nzira dzakagadzirirwa; somuenzaniso, akadzorerwa muchikamu icho chakagovera chikamu icho pachako kana kuti chakadzorerwa zvakaenzana pakati pezvinhu zvose. Pane humwe huchapupu hunodzidzisa hunoita kuti munhu apedzisire chikamu chakagadziridzwa neichi chigadziriswa nzira inogona kuita zvakanyanya kudarika nzira dzisingabvumirwi-dzekugoverwa-maitiro inoshandiswa ikozvino, kunyange kana izvozvo zvisingaitiki, kugoverwa zvakaenzana yehutambudzi iyo pachayo inenge yakawedzerwa rubatsiro inogona kururamisa kuchinja kwakadaro.
Kugunun'una 2: Dow Jones Industrial Average components, asi inokosha maererano nemari yemakethe, kusabatanidza vazhinji vanoita zvekubhadhara mari yekutengesa mari inoita kuti iite zvishoma-kupfuura-yakakodzera muongorori wezvakaitika zvevatengesi vane ruzivo rwakawanda rwezvikwata zvinowanikwa pane dzakawanda misika yemakemikari mapoka.
Zvinodaro kuti Dow Jones Industrial Average inogona kuwedzera kukura kana kuderera apo huwandu hwakawanda hwevamwe vanhu vari muhurumende dzakanyorwa muUnited States dzinoenda kune imwe nzvimbo. Izvi zvinoreva kuti nhamba yepamusoro yakadhindwa mumapepanhau uye inoratidzwa pamashoko eusiku hazvirevi kuti inomiririra ruzivo rwoupfumi rwemajairo evanhu vanogara variko.
Zvakare, iyi ndeimwe yenzvimbo iyo apo, nepo ichokwadi, mubvunzo mutengi anofanira kuzvibvunza kana, "Zvinorevei izvi?".
Dow Jones Industrial Avhareji inoshandiswa seyakaitika kare "yakakwana" yeproxy iyo inenge yakaenzana nemamiriro ezvinhu akadai eine mumiririri wemazita emabhizimisi makuru, akabudirira zvikuru kune mamwe maindasitiri eUnited States. Sei zvakakosha kuti zvimwe zvikwanise kugadzirisa mararamiro emakambani ekuenzanisa? Ndezvipi zvingadai zvichishanda chero ani zvake achifunga kuti mutyairi anogona kuzarura mutero wake wokutengeserana uye kuona kuti iye ari kuita sei.
Kugunun'una 3: Vanyori veThe Wall Street Journal vanogona kukwanisa kuwedzera huwandu hwehutano pavanosarudza makambani ekuwedzera kana kubvisa kubva kuDow Jones Industrial Average. Izvi zvinotanga dambudziko rekutonga kwevanhu.
Vanhu havasi vakakwana. Vanhu vanoita zvikanganiso. Sezvambotaurwa, makumi emakore apfuura, vatori veThe Wall Street Journal vakaita chisarudzo chisina kunaka kuti vabvise International Business Machines, kana IBM, kubva pane zvinyorwa zvayo. IBM yakaramba ichinyora chikwata chemahombekiti ekakodhi uye yakadzoserwa zvakare munguva yekuvandudzwa kwakatevera kune chikamu chinyorwa. Dai IBM haina kumbobviswa panzvimbo yekutanga, DJIA yaizove yakapetwa kaviri kupfuura yakatarwa iye zvino.
Pano, zvakare, dambudziko racho harisi rekukosha sezvandinofunga kuti vanhu vazhinji vanoita sevanofunga uye, munzira dzakawanda, vanopfuura mienzaniso yakawanda-inotungamirirwa iyo isiri, chaizvoizvo, inonzwisisika mushure mekunge muchiziva zvinovaita . Funga nezveDow Jones Industrial Average mune imwe nzvimbo yekudenga; kambani yekutengeswa kwemahombekiti emabhizimisi makumi matatu makuru munyika iyo inoremerwa nemusika wemari . Muchiitiko ichi, panguva dzekusava nemafungiro ezvakawanda - funga nezvemahombekiti ekutengesera kwema1990 - mumwe wevatengesi vese vanozoita sevanyori veThe Wall Street Journal iye zvino bedzi, panzvimbo pekufungidzirwa, vanyori venhau vezvemari vakagara pamusangano wegungano, pamwe chete midzimu yemhuka yemapoka aizove ari kutyaira iyo makambani akawedzerwa kana kubviswa mune chero zvarongororwa.
Kutsiura 4: Nemhaka yekuti inongova nemakambani makumi matatu chete, Dow Jones Industrial Average haisi seyakasiyana-siyana semamwe mararamiro emakero emashesi.
Uku ndiko kutsoropodza kunosanganisira masvomhu kunoshushikana uye panguva imwe chete kwete yakaipa sezvazvinonzwika kuti yakaparadzaniswa pakati peS & P 500, inorema nemari yemari, uye Dow Jones Industrial Average inoreva. Hungu, S & P 500 iri nani zvakasiyana-siyana asi kwete zvishoma zvokuti yakaguma mukushanda zvakajeka kushanda kana kupererwa kwengozi pane zvizvarwa zvishomanana zvakapfuura; chimwe chakavanzika cheDow's performance. Kunze kwezvo, Dow Jones Industrial Average haisi kureva kutora kushanda kwematokari ose, inotarisirwa kuva barometer; kunyanya kuongororwa kwezvinhu zvinowanzoitika mumusika uchitungamirirwa nekambani dzinotungamirira dzinomirira American industry.
Kunyange zvakadaro, chikonzero chekutsoropodza uku chinhu chinokosha. Zvinenge makore makumi mashanu emakore ekutsvakurudza kwezvidzidzo zvakatsvaga kuwana nhamba yakakodzera yezvikamu muhutoriko hwekuenzanisa kusvika pane imwe nzvimbo apo zvimwe zvakasiyana-siyana zvisingabatsiri.
Nhamba shoma ndeyekuti munguva yakawanda yezvakaitika kare, nhamba yezvikamu zvakakosha mumapatotipu zvaifungidzirwa kuti pane imwe nzvimbo pakati pezvitoro gumi (ona Evans naArcher kumashure muna 1968) uye mashamba makumi mashanu (ona Campbell, Lettau, Malkiel, uye Xu muna 2001 ). Iyo ichangobva kuitika kuti pfungwa yakawanda yezvikwata zvakakosha yatotanga kubata (ona Domian, Louton, uye Racine muna 2006) uye chete, saka, kana iwe uchibvuma pfungwa iyo inowedzera munguva shoma shomanana inoreva kurega kwenguva refu vatengesi vanobhadhara mari yekubata kwavo uye havana chikonzero chekutengesa chero nguva ipi zvayo.
Kupa mukana-muenzaniso kune mutsara iwoyo wokupedzisira, mubhadhari wemabhiriyoni Charlie Munger, uyo anofarira kuchengetedza zvikwereti zvakakwana pasina chikwereti kwavari uye akagara pairi kwemazana emakore 25 kana kupfuura, anotaura kuti kana munhu akachenjera, ane ruzivo rwebhizimisi kana bhizimisikadzi anoziva zvaari kuita, uye ane ruzivo rwemari rinodiwa kuti azvinzwisise uye aongorore dambudziko, iye angave akakodzera kubata sevashomanana sematanda matatu kana zviyo izvi zviri mumakambani asinganzwisisiki asina kuwirirana uye asina kubatanidzwa munyaya inofungidzirwa. Somuenzaniso, Munger dzimwe nguva anoshandisa bhizimisi rakadai seThe Coca-Cola Company kuti aratidze pfungwa yake. Coke ine mugove wemusika unoyevedza zvokuti unoita mari kubva kune imwe nzvimbo inenge 3.5 kubva muzana yezvinwiwa zvose vanhu vanogadzira pasi rose mune zuva ripi zvaro, kusanganisira mvura yepombi, inoita bhizimisi mu 180+ shanduko dzemari, inofarira kudzorera mumvura inoshandiswa mumari, uye kunyange inotya humwe huwandu huri mutengo wekusiyanisa kwemhando kupfuura vanhu vakawanda vanoziva; semuenzaniso, Coca-Cola haisi kambani yemasoda chete, iyo inopawo mupi mukuru weii uye juice rwemagirange, uyewo ine mitsara inokura mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzakadai sefivha nemukaka. Munger anotaura kuti kambani yakadai seCoke inogona kuva sarudzo yakakodzera kana -uye ichi chikuru kana-muongorori wezvokutengeserana wezviitiko ane ruzivo rwakakura rwezvakaitika uye mari yakawanda yemunhu inokosha kupfuura zvingadai zvamboita kuti azviriritire pachake anogona kupa nguva yakakodzera kuti arambe achibatanidzwa uye achishingaira mukudzidza kushanda kwekambani nekusunungurwa kwegore rimwe nerimwe, kuchibata, mupfungwa, sekunge kuti yaiva yebhizimisi yemhuri yakachengetwa. Kutaura zvazviri, akatsigira nharo iyi nekuratidza kuti akawanda-kwete ose, asi akawanda - zvivako zvakakosha zvakatsigirwa nemupiro mukuru wemugozi wezvigadziro zvaizove zviri nani pane nguva yekuisa pachigamba chekutanga pane kusiyanisa chikamu ichocho kuburikidza nokutengeswa kwezvivimbiso. Icho chikonzero cheMunger's argument chinouya kune chokwadi chokuti anotenda kuti zvinogona kuderedza dambudziko, iro raasingatsananguri sechisimba asi, pane kudaro, mukana wekurasikirwa zvachose kwemari, kuburikidza nokunzwisisa zviito zvekushanda zvekambani dzine , iyo inogona kunge isingagoneki kana ichiedza kuchengetedza chimwe chinhu chakaita semabhizimisi mazana matanhatu.
Mamwe mafungiro akavhara pamusoro peDow Jones Industrial Average
Isu hatina dambudziko guru neDow Jones Industrial Average sezvo vanhu vazhinji vanoita sevari nokuti tinozvitora pane zvazviri - zvakakosha, kunyange zvazvo zvisingakwanisi, kuenzana kwekuti zvinhu zvinowanikwa sei muhomwe yebhu chip United States. Kunyange zvazvo iine chikamu chiduku chezvinhu zvose zvakabatanidzwa pariri seurongwa hwekunyora, S & P 500 ine matambudziko ega.
Iko Balance haisi kupa mutero, utsvaga, kana mari yemari uye mazano. Mashoko aya ari kuendeswa asina kufunga nezvezvinangwa zvekutsvaga, kushivirira kune ngozi, kana mamiriro emari yemumwe mutengesi chaiyo uye angave asina kukodzera kune varairi vese. Basa rekare harisi kuratidza migumisiro yemangwana. Kuisa mari kunosanganisira njodzi dzinosanganisira kurasikirwa kwatinoitwa mukuru.