MunaNovember 2006, chiratidzo chekutanga chekutungamirira chakabudisa dambudziko. Dhipatimendi reWescence rakataura kuti mvumo itsva yemusha yakaderera 28 muzana mugore. Izvozvo zvaireva kutengesa musha musha kwaizoguma kwemwedzi mipfumbamwe inotevera. Asi hapana munhu aigona kutenda kuti dzimba dzeimba dzichawira.
Izvo zvakanga zvisati zvaitika kubvira Kubva Kudenga Kukuru .
Federal Reserve Board yakaramba iine tariro. Mutsara weNovember Beige Book , Fed yakataura kuti hupfumi hwaive hwakasimba zvekukwevera dzimba kunze kwekutsvaira kwayo. Yakaratidza kushanda kwakasimba, kutsika kwepasi uye kudhura kwemari yavatengi.
Muna 2006, Fed haina kuteerera chikamu chechipiri chakajeka chehupfumi. Icho chaiva chechibereko chakavharirwa cheSupport Treasys. Iko kushandiswa kwezvibereko zvekukohwa ndeye apo nguva pfupi yeHurumende yehupfumi inobereka yakareba kudarika yakareba kwenguva yakawanda. Nguva pfupi nguva pfupi yezvibereko zvinoderera. Vashandi vanoda kudzoka kwakakwirira kuti vaise mari yavo kwenguva yakareba. Asi ivo vachaita mari muhutano hurefu hwekudzivirira kubva pakuderera. Muchero wekurima wakanga wachinjawo mushure mekutora ions ye 2000, 1991, uye 1981.
Nyanzvi dzezvematongerwo enyika dzisina hanya nechiratidzo ichi nokuti chido chekudarika chakanga chiri pasi kudarika mumashure ekutanga. Vazhinji vavo vaifunga kuti dzimba dzekugara dzichikwira kamwechete iyo Fed yakaderedza chido chezvibereko.
Vakatenda kuti hupfumi hwaizoramba huchikura 2-3 muzana gore iroro. Izvi ndezvekuti hupfumi hwakanga huine zvakawanda zvehuwandu hwekusimudzira kukura.
Chaicho Chinokonzera Matambudziko
Zvechokwadi, 2007 GDP kukura yakauya pa 2 muzana. Asi hupfumi-vatariri havana kuziva kukosha kwechikwata che subprime mortgage market. Yakagadzira "dutu rakakwana" yezviitiko zvakaipa.
Chokutanga, mabhangi akanga asinganetseki nezvekwereti-kukodzera kwevakwereta. Vakadzorerazve zvikwereti pamusika wechipiri .
Chechipiri, vasina kutora chikwereti chekutengesa vatengesi vakapa zvikwereti kuvanhu vakanga vasina kukodzera. Chechitatu, varidzi veminda vakawanda vakatora chikwereti-chikwereti chete kuti vawane mari shoma pamwedzi. Sezvo zvikwereti zvekutora zvikwereti zvakasarudzwa pane imwe yepamusoro, varidzi veimba idzi havana kukwanisa kubhadhara chikwereti. Ipapo dzimba dzeimba dzikawa uye dzaisagona kutengesa dzimba dzavo kune purofiti. Somugumisiro, ivo havana kutadza.
Chechina, mabhenji akachengetwa zvikwereti zvekubhadhara mari . Vakashandira shanduro yakanyanyisa "quant jocks" kuti vateerere zvitsva zvitsva. I "quants" yakanyora mapurogiramu emakombiyuta akawedzerazve aya maMS mumatanda akawanda ane ngozi uye ari pangozi. Mahombekombe akaipisisa aibhadhara mari yepamusoro yemari, asi zvaive zvingave zvisingakoshi. Zvisungo zvisingabatsiri zvakabhadharwa zvishoma. Mapurogiramu akanga akaoma zvikuru zvokuti hakuna munhu ainzwisisa zvaive muhomwe imwe neimwe. Vakanga vasina ruzivo rwekuwanda kwehomwe imwe neimwe yaiva subprime mortgage.
Apo nguva dzaive dzakanaka, zvakanga zvisina basa. Munhu wose akatenga zvikwata zvepamusoro-soro nokuti vakapa kudzoka kwakakwirira. Sezvo misika yemumba yakaderera, munhu wese aiziva kuti zvigadzirwa zvaikundira. Sezvo pasina munhu akazvinzwisisa, kukosha kwekugadzirisa kwezviwanikwa izvi kwakanga kusina kujeka.
Pakupedzisira asi kwete, vazhinji vevatengi veMBS vakanga vasina kungoita mamwe mabhangi. Vakanga vari varimi vari voga , mari yepensheni, uye hedge funds . Izvo zvakapararira dambudziko mumamiriro ose ehupfumi. Mari yeHedge yakashandisa zviyero izvi sechikwata chekukwereta mari. Izvozvo zvakagadzira kudzoka kwepamusoro mumakambani emombe, asi yakakurudzira kukanganisa kwekupi kwekuderera. Sangano re Securities uye Exchange Commission harina kutonga mari yemvura, naizvozvo hakuna munhu aiziva kuti yakawanda sei.
Kudyidzana Kunopindirana
Muna March 2007, Fed yakaona kuti hedge fund dzimba dzakarasikirwa dzingakanganisa hupfumi. Muzhizha rose, mabhanga haana kuda kupa chikwereti kune mumwe nemumwe. Vakanga vachitya kuti vaizogamuchira MBS yakaipa mukudzoka. Bhengi vakanga vasingazivi kuti vakawana chikwereti chakaipa sei pamabhuku avo. Hapana aida kubvuma. Kana vakadaro, ipapo kukweretwa kwavo kwaizoderedzwa.
Zvadaro, mutengo wavo wekutengesa waizowa, uye vaisazokwanisa kuwedzera mari yakawanda yekugara mune bhizinesi. Misika yemabhiza inoona-yakasungwa muzhizha rose, sezvo vatengesi-varindi vakaedza kuona kuti zvinhu zvakashata zvakadini.
Nenguva yaAugust, chikwereti chakanga chakaoma zvikuru zvokuti Fed yaibhadhara mabhiriyoni $ 75 bhiriyoni. Yakanga ichida kudzorera kuvhara kwenguva yakareba zvakakwana kuitira kuti mabhanga kunyora pasi kurasikirwa kwavo uye kudzokera kubhizimusi yekukweretesa mari. Pane kudaro, mabhengi akamira achikweretesa kune vanenge vose.
Kuburuka kwepasi kwakange kuri kuitika. Sezvo mabhanhire akacheka kumashure ezvitoro, matengo emba akawira mberi. Izvo zvakaita kuti vamwe vakwereta vaende, asi yakawedzera zvikwereti zvakashata mabhuku ebhangi. Izvozvo zvakaita kuti mabhangi akweretwe zvishoma.
Kwemwedzi mitanhatu inotevera, Fed yakaderedza chibereko ichi kubva pa575 kusvika ku 2.0 muzana. Yakaputira mabhiriyoni emadhora mubhengi rekugadzirisa mari. Asi hapana chaigona kuita mabhenji achivimbana zvakare. MunaNovember 2007, US Treasurer Munyori wenyika Henry Paulson akaziva mamiriro echokwadi. Mabhenji aiva nechinetso chekutendeseka, kwete dambudziko rega. Akasika Superfund. Yakashandisa $ 75 mabhiriyoni muhurumende yega yega madhora kuti atenge zvakashata zvemari. Vakanga vatovimbiswa neHarare. Nenguva ino, zvakanga zvanyanyisa sezvo kutya kwakazadza misika yemari . Izvo zvakava pachena kuti $ 75 mabhiriyoni yaisazove yakakwana.
Chimwe Chekudzivirira
Zvinhu zviviri zvingadai zvakadzivirira dambudziko racho. Ikutanga inenge iri mutemo wevatapi vemari, avo vakaita zvikwereti zvakashata, uye hedge funds, avo vakashandisa kuwandisa kwakanyanya . Yechipiri yaizove yakarangarira kare kuti yakanga iri dambudziko rekutendeseka, uye kuti hurumende inofanira kutenga zvikwereti zvakaipa.
Asi pane imwe nzvimbo, dambudziko rezvemari rakakonzerwa nemari mune zvishandiso izvo zvakasvibisa pfungwa dzevanhu. Izvo zvinogona kukanganisa zvitsva zvitsva, sa MBS uye zvigadzirwa, zvakanga zvisinganzwisiswi kunyange nehuwandu hwejocks hwakavasika. Mutemo ungadai wakaderedza kuderera kuburikidza nekuderedza zvimwe zvehuwandu. Izvo zvingadai zvisingagoni kudzivirira kusikwa kwezvinhu zvitsva zvemari. Kune rumwe rutivi, kutya nemakaro zvicharamba zvichigadzira mhepo. Innovation ichagara iine maitiro asina kuonekwa kusvikira zvakanaka pashure pacho.