Mutengo Wemusana Wemabasa, Zvimwe Zvayo, uye Maitiro Akangodarika

Chikonzero nei zero basa risina kunaka sezvazvinonzwika

Nhamba yemasikirwo ekushaiwa basa inobatanidza kusagadzikana, kurongeka, uye kusakosha kwebasa. Kunyange hupfumi hune hutano huchava nehuwandu hwekushaiwa basa nekuti vashandi vanogara vachiuya uye vachienda, vachitarisira mabasa akanaka. Izvi zvisingabatsiri, kusvikira vawana basa idzva, ndeyekuwanda kwemaitiro ekushaiwa basa.

The Federal Reserve inofungidzira kuti iyi yezinga inenge pakati pe4,5% uye 5.0 muzana.

Vashandi vezvematongerwo enyika uye vemari vanoshandisa chiyero ichocho sechinangwa chekushanda kwakakwana. Vanoshandisa 2 muzana sechinangwa chekutengesa kwezvakawanda. Vanotarisawo kukodzera kweGDP kwekukura kwepakati pe2% uye 3 muzana. Vanofanira kuedza kuenzanisa zvinangwa izvi zvitatu pavanenge vachiisa chido chekuda, mitero yemitero, kana kushandisa mari.

Zvikamu Zvitatu zveMutengo Wemusana Wemabasa

Kunyangwe mune hupfumi hwehutano hwakanaka, pane imwe nhanho yekusashaya kwezvikonzero zvitatu.

1. Kushushikana Kwekushanda - Vamwe vashandi vari pakati pemabasa. Mienzaniso ndevatsva vanopedza kudzidza vachitsvaka basa ravo rokutanga. Vamwe vashandi vanoenda kuguta idzva pasina kuvhara rimwe basa. Vamwe vanhu vanorega pakarepo, vachiziva kuti vachawana basa iri nani munguva pfupi. Kunyange zvakadaro, vamwe vanogona kusarudza kusiya basa kuitira zvikonzero zvemunhu zvakadai sekurega basa, pamuviri kana kurwara. Vanobva kunze kwebasa . Pavanozodzoka uye vanotanga kutarisazve, vanoverengwa sevasina basa.

1. Kusarasikirwa Kwemabasa - Sezvo upfumi huchichinja, pane zvisingadziviriki zvisingadziviriki pakati pevashandi vebasa revashandi uye zvinodiwa nevashandi. Izvi zvinoitika kana vashandi vachidzingwa ne teknolojia, sekunge ma robots anotora mabasa ekugadzira . Inowanikawo kana mafekitari achienda kunzvimbo dzinodhura, sezvakaitika apo NAFTA yakasayirwa. Apo vana vadiki vainge vava kusvika kuma30 vavo uye vaiva nevana vashomanana, pakanga pasina zvishoma zvevashandi vezuva. Kusava nemabasa kwakasara kusvikira vashumiri vadzorerwa.

1. Kuwedzera Kushaya Basa - Izvi zvinoitika pose apo hurumende inopindira nemitemo mikuru yebhajiro kana mubhadharo / mutengo wekutengesa. Izvo zvinogonawo kuitika pamwe nehurumende. Apo mubhadharo unodzorerwa kune imwe yepamusoro, kusashaya basa kunowanzoguma. Sei? Kuti urambe uri mukati mehutori hwemari yemari, kambani inofanira kurega vamwe vevashandi kuti vabhadhara vashandi vasara avo vane mvumo yepamusoro.

Mukuwedzera, kune marudzi matanhatu ane ngozi ekushaiwa basa . Icho chinongororwa , kwenguva refu, chaiyo, nguva, yekare, uye kusasarudzwa.

Sei Usingadi Zero Urombo?

Iyo chete nzira yeupfumi inogona kuva nehuwandu hweperesenti yehuwandu hwekushaya kwehuwandu hwemabasa ndeye kana yakanyanya kupisa. Kunyange zvakadaro, mibairo ingangodaro inomuka kusati kwasvika basa risati rasvika pane zero.

IUnited States haisati yamboona zero basa. Iyo yakaderera yakawanda yaiva ye2,5 muzana, munaMay naJune 1953. Ndizvo chete nokuti hupfumi hwakanyanya kupera nekuda kweHondo yeKorea. Apo bhubu iri rakaputika, rakabvisa Recession ya 1953 .

The Recession Could Have, But Not, Raise the Natural Rate of Unemployment

Dambudziko rezvemari ra2008 rakaparadza basa rakakura remamiriyoni 8.3. Kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwemabasa kwakabuda kubva pa4,7 muzana kusvika ku10.1 muzana pakureba kwayo muna 2009. Kurashika uku kukuru kwaireva kuti vazhinji vevasina basa vakagara saizvozvo nenzira yemwedzi mitanhatu kana kupfuura.

Basa risina nguva refu rakaita kuti zvive zvakaoma zvikuru kuti vadzoke kuzoshanda. Unyanzvi hwavo uye ruzivo rwavo rwakapera.

Izvi zvinoreva here kuti kudarika kwaizobva, sezvinhaka yavo, yepamusoro yehuwandu hwekushaiwa basa? Tsvakurudzo yakaitwa neCleveland Federal Reserve yakataura kuti, izvi zvingava zvakadaro. Ndiko kushandiswa kwemabasa kunonoka. Munyika yose yekuderera, avo vaiva nemabasa vakanga vasingakwanisi kuvasiya. Izvozvi, muna 2011, avo vanosiya mabasa (kupatsanurwa kwehuwandu) kwaive kwakaderera sezvazvaiva panguva yekuputika mushure mokuderera.

Zvikonzero zvaive zvakasiyana zvakadaro. Munguva yebasa, vanhu havana kusiya mabasa. Vaivada uye vakabhadharwa zvakanaka. Vashandi vaive nenguva yakaoma yekuwana vashandi vatsva, saka vakaita kuti vashandi vafare. Munguva yekuderera, vashandi vaitya kutama ndokutsvaka basa rakanaka.

Vanotsungirira nemaawa akawanda uye hapana kumutsa kuti vachengete mabasa avo.

Izvo zviyero zvekushaya mabasa zvinowanzobuda mushure mekuderera kwematambudziko. Kushushikana kwehupfumi kunowedzera sezvo vashandi vanogona kusiya mabasa avo, vachivimba kuti vanogona kuwana imwe iri nani ikozvino kuti kuderera kwapera. Mukuwedzera, kushayikwa kwemabasa kwakakwirira, sezvo vashandi vave vasina mabasa kwenguva yakareba unyanzvi hwavo husingafanani nezvido zvemabhizinesi.

Pakati pegore ra1999 na2012, chizvarwa chekushaya mabasa chakasimuka kubva ku4,9 kubva ku5,5 kusvika kuzana. Izvo zvakanga zvakakwirira kudarika munguva yekuderera. Vatsvakurudzi vakakura vakafungisisa kuti urefu uye nekudzika kwekuderera kwemagariro kwakaratidza kuti zviyero zvepanyama zvingoramba zvakasimudzirwa. Asi gore ra2014, rainge rawira kusvika ku4,8 muzana. (Kubva: "Mutengo Wekushaya Kwemabasa," St. Louis Federal Reserve, musi waMarch 22, 2017.)