A Tarisa Maitiro Akasiyana Sei Makosanganiswa Emabhangi uye Bonds Akaitwa Kupfuura Nguva
Paunotanga kuisa mari, unoda kunzwisisa kuti zvikwata uye zvisungo zvinotamba mabasa akasiyana mune zveporofesa yako kupfuura kungoita hupfumi hwemari, zvikamu , nemari inowanikwa . Aya mapoka maviri easset ane maitiro avo uye maitiro avo, zvinobatsira uye zvisingabatsiri. Zvinokosha kuti uzvizive navo kuitira kuti ugone kuita zvisarudzo zvakajeka pamusoro pezvakakodzera iwe nemhuri yako.
Kupa mufananidzo wakazara, nezvishoma zvisiri izvo, zvakadai somushandi wechidiki pakutanga kwebasa ane makore makumi matatu nemakumi matatu emakore asati apera basa kana kuti mukuru wekusununguka uyo asingakwanisi kutora dambudziko risina maturo rinoshandiswa nehuwandu huwandu hwehupenyu hwose yebasa, inowanzova upenzi kuti igovererwe 100% yematokari kana 100% zvisungo. Zvinosuruvarisa, hazvisi zvisiri izvo kuti ndione vashandi vatsva, uye kunyange avo vave vachirima kwemakore kwemakore 401 (k) chirongwa kana Roth IRA , kuti vaende kubva kune imwe yakanyanya kusvika kune imwe, kazhinji panguva dzisina nguva.
Zvichida muedzo unonzwisisika. Funga nezvenyika yakawanda yemakakatengesi yemombe kubva pane zvakatarisana nemushambadziri asina ruzivo. Pashure pemakore ekuona zvikwereti zvichikwira, mazano ehurumende anokura, uye kubhadharwa kwemabhadharo kugoverwa, zvingaratidzika kuva zvine musoro kuramba uchiita izvo zvakashanda munguva yakapfuura. Ichokwadi ndechokuti nguva dzakadai seyizvi kazhinji kana zvine ngozi kutenga mabhizimisi nokuti kukoshesa kwave kwakakwirira, mune mamiriro ezvinhu anowanzoisa njodzi kusvikira pakufamba-famba-kugadziriswa kuwanikwa kwezvibereko zvinosvika hafu, kana kuti zvishoma, zveHaidy bond bonds.
Mitengo inogona kudzokera kune maitiro ayo anorevekesa maonero - haugone kupukunyuka mathematical ezvo zvisingaperi - nguva zhinji ichienda mberi zvakanyanya kune zvakasiyana nechokuita sechisimba. Kurasikirwa kukuru kunowanikwa. Iko-ikozvino-inopisa mari inopika mashizha kusvikira purogiramu ichidzoka zvakare zvakare, gare gare.
Zvimwe zvinowanzoitika, mutyairi haanzwisisi kuti kushandiswa kwenguva refu kunofanira kuyerwa, zvishoma , mumakore mashanu . Vanotarisa pamatokisi avo, mari yekuenzanisira, mari pamwe chete , ETFs , kana mamwe masangano uye mushure memavhiki mashomanana, mwedzi, kana nemakore, pakarepo vanofunga kuti havaiti uye ivo vanofunga kuti vanofanira kuitei. Vanobva vazosiya nzvimbo idzi pane zvose zvakaitwa zvakanaka munguva ichangopfuura. Dambudziko iri rakaipisisa kune hupfumi-kuvaka hutano hwokuti mutual fund data giant Morningstar yakaratidza muzvikamu zvaro zvekutsvakurudza vakawana 2% chete, 3%, kana 4% panguva iyo apo maitiro avo ari kukura 9%, 10%, uye 11 %. Maitiro evanhu, mune mamwe mazwi, ane mhosva yehuwandu hwehutano hwakanaka hunoonekwa nevashambadziri, zvichida kusvika pakugadziriswa kwehurongwa hwepasi pose huri kupfuura huwandu huripo hwekutsvaga mari yekubhadhara uye mitero. Zvichida nemari iwe unowana hutano hwemari iwe pachako kuti ubatsire kuronga hupenyu hwako hwemari uye mitero kubhadharira zvivako zvekugadzirisa, zvidziviriro, uye zvinorwisa urombo. Kurasikirwa nemitadzo yezviito kune zvishoma zvidzikinuro. Iwe uri murombo sezvinongova vagari venhaka yako uye vanobatsira.
Muchikamu chino, ndinoda kutarisa kuti matanho uye zvisungo zvinogona sei kutungamirira kumagumisiro ari nani kupfuura mashizha kana zvisungo zvinogona kuita ivo pachavo.
Handisi kuzokuudza, chaizvoizvo, kuti iwe unofanira kuisa mari yakawanda sei mune imwe yezvikwidzi izvi, asi ini ndichati ndinowira mumusasa wekukosha kwekuita mari yezvakaitika Benjamin Graham, uyo aifunga kuti mudiki, asina ruzivo muzvinesi chengetedza pasingasviki 25% uye kwete pane 75% mune imwe yeklasi yechikwata, uchigadzirisa ivo zvichienderana nehupenyu hukuru hunochinja apo zvido zvenyu zvakasiyana kusiyana nezvaive kana kana zviitiko zvakanyanyisa zvekuenzanisa zvinomuka sezvavanoita zvose zvizvarwa zvezvizvarwa. Muenzaniso wakakwana weiwo munyika chaiye waizova John Bogle, muvambi weVanguard, achifunga pahupamhi hwenyika-dot-com kuvhara zvose kutenga 25% kana zvakadaro yeavo pfuma yake yega uye kuisa mari yacho, pane kudaro, zvisungo. Pane kudaro, ndinoda kukusimbisa nemashoko kuitira kuti uve nemafungiro akanaka pane zvaunoda, mibvunzo yaunoda kukumbira mubatsiri wako , uye nhoroondo yekusagadzikana maitiro maitiro akasiyana-siyana ematokisi uye zvisungo zvave zvichiitika.
Ngatitange paKutanga: Chirongwa Chekuti Mabhizimisi Nezvikwereti Zvakasiyana Sei
Zvakanakisa kutanga nemitemo. Ndezvipi zvikwereti uye zvisungo? Vakasiyana sei?
- Chimwe chikamu chematokari chinomiririra wega mubhizimisi. Kusiya pamamiriro ezvinhu apo kubudiswa kunogona kuitika , kana iwe uine chikamu chesangweji uye uchichiparadzanisa muzvidimbu gumi, imwe neimwe yezvikamu izvi inokodzero yekudhonza 1 0000 yehupfumi kana kurasikirwa. Kana iwe uine zvikamu gumi, iwe une 100% yebhizimisi. Misika yemabhizimisi inoratidzika kune imwe yenyika chaiye-nguva iyo vatipo uye vanogona kuti vashandise kutenga kuenzana (umu) mune zvose kubva kumakambani echocolate kuti vaite bhizimusi vhizha, vashandi vekambani yekugadzira kofi roasters, inshuwarisi pasi pevashandi kune vanogadzira software, mabhangi kuresitorendi, zvinodhaka zvewaini kune makambani anonhuwira. Kuti uwane pfungwa yemhando dzakasiyana dzemabhizimisi umo iwe unogona kuva muridzi nekutenga zvikamu zvezvitoro, tarisa tsanangudzo iyi yemakambani nemabhizimisi muS & P 500 . Kupfuura kwenguva yakareba kwenguva, pane, zvichida, hapana zviri nani pane zvenyika kupfuura huri hwebhizimisi rine hutano hwakakura pamusoro .
- Bhizimiri rinomiririra chikwereti chakaitwa nechisungo mutengesi kune mubhadhadzi wezvisungo. Changamire zvisungo zvinobudiswa nemarudzi. Kusungwa kweMaspala kunobudiswa nemataundi. Mabhandi ehurumende anounzwa nemakambani. Vazhinji-vanilla-vanilla zvisungo, kunyanya muUnited States, zvinosanganisira kukweretesa kambani chikamu chakaenzana nechiso chepamusoro chechibvumirano pachako ndokuwana kufarira kubva kune bhizimisi mushure memwedzi mitanhatu kusvikira musikana wakura, panguva iyo mukuru anofanira kudzorerwa kunze kwekuti mubhadhadzi wehurumende ave asina kushandiswa kana kuti nenzira imwe neimwe asingakwanisi kukudza zvaanosungirwa, pane imwe nyaya dare rekugadza richazobatanidzwa.
Pane zvinowanzosaziva kuti zvisungo ndezvokuchengetedza kupfuura zvigadzirwa asi izvi hazvisi zvechokwadi . Pane kudaro, zvakanyanyisa kutaura kuti matanda uye zvisungo zvinotarisana nezvengozi dzakasiyana siyana dzinogona kutyisidzira simba rako rekutenga nenzira dzakasiyana kana iwe usingachenjeri.
Mashizha haazivi nyore. Nevashandi vekutsvaga vachivakumbira, uye kubatsirwa kusava nechokwadi, makaro nekutya dzimwe nguva zvinogona kukanganisa urongwa. Makambani akanaka zvakanakisisa achapiwa kunze panguva dzakadai sa1973-1974, kutengesa zvishoma kudarika zvavaikodzera kune chero mutengo wemutengesi uyo akawana kambani yose uye akachengetera hupenyu hwake hwose. Panguva imwe chete, iwe unowana nguva panguva iyo inotyisa, iyo isingabatsiri mabhizinesi ekutengeserana pazvinhu zvakashata zvakaenzana, zvakanyatsodziviswa kubva pakuitika. Muenzaniso wakanaka wekupedzisira ndewe 1999 apo Indaneti inonzi bubble yakanga yakazara. Kuita kuti zvive zvakaoma, kunyange bhizinesi rakanaka rakaita kuti zvizvarwa zvevanhu vapfumi, seThe Hershey Company, zvinogona kutambura nguva yakadai se55 kusvika muna 2009 apo shamba yakarasa zvishoma nezvishoma 55% yemari yekutengeswa kwayo pasinei nemari yekuwana kuwana zviri nani uye zvikamu zvinowedzera; kunonoka nokuda kwechikonzero chisingaoneki sekuti chinangwa chikuru chejini injini inowedzera uye ichiwedzera. Vamwe vanhu havatori zvepfungwa, zvepfungwa, kana zvepfungwa zvakagadzirirwa kuita izvi. Izvo zvakanaka - haufaniri kuisa mari mumatokari kuti uwane pfuma - asi inoita kuti basa rive rakaoma.
Zvikwereti zvinowanzoita zvishoma kuderera kupfuura mashizha, kunyange zvisungo zvinogona kuona kuchinja kwakanyanya mumutengo sezvinopupurirwa nehupfumi hwe2008-2009 apo mabhengi ekutsvaga ari kuzivisa kubhadhara uye kubhadhara mari chero zvingabvira, kurega zvakawanda zvakanyanya zvakachengetwa zvekuwana mari pamusika, kutyaira pasi mutengo. (Zvinhu zvakange zvakashata, mumwe muzvikwereti akakurumbira akataura kuti iyo imwechete yebhadhiro yekuongorora mabhuku yakatumirwa kwaari mukati mekudonha yaiva nemitsetse miviri yezvibatanidza zvakafanana, izvo zvinowirirana kaviri kupfuura imwe. Nguva pfupi pashure pacho, hurumende dzisungo dzakabudiswa ne US Treasury yakasimudzira kusvika kune imwe nzvimbo yaive nehuwandu hwenharaunda, zvinoreva kuti vatengesi vaibvumirwa kuti varasikirwa nemari asi vaitenga zvisungo, zvisinei, sorudzi rwemari yehurumende yehurumende yepamusoro-soro. uye mubhadhari anogona kubhadhara gurukota kana zvichifanira, dambudziko guru nekuisa mari muzvisungo ndeyekuti inomiririra chivimbiso chekubhadharwa mune ramangwana mune zvakasarudzwa, mari yezita. Mune mamwe mazwi, kana iwe ukatenga bhizimisi refu, uri kuenda kwenguva yakareba mari. Kunze kwekunge kune rumwe rudzi rwekuchengetedzwa kwezvokuchengetedzwa kwenyika, sezvo pane MAZANO neChete I zvisungo zvekuchengetedza , iwe unogona kutambura kuderedzwa kukuru mune simba rekutenga kunyange kana upfumi hwako hunowedzera. Mhando shomanana dzezvisungo zvakagadzirirwa-mukudzivirirwa pakusagadzikana, zvakadai seChinyorwa EE chekuchengetedza , izvo zvinogona kudzikinurwa nokuda kwezvakaverengwa zvekuverengwa, kusanganisira chero yekutanga kuregererwa kwechirwere chekuda iwe unogona kutanga, pasinei nemamiriro emisika.
Izvi zvingaratidzika kunge zviduku asi asi sezvo United States yakabuda muhutano hwegoridhe - chisarudzo chengwaru chakabatsira kudzivisa kutambura kwakawanda uye kutambura kuburikidza kupa Central Bank kukwanisa kurwisana kuderedza mitemo kuburikidza nekuwedzera kwemari inopa - nhoroondo yakaratidza kuti Congress haigone kubatsira asi inopedza zvakawanda kupfuura iyo inowana. Iyi mutemo wekutsvaga mari inobhadhara mutero wekunze kwekunze kuburikidza nokuderedza kwekukosha kwedhora nemari imwe neimwe kutenga zvishomanana kana makumi emakore apfuura. Ndakaita joked izvo, pasi pemamiriro ezvinhu anhasi, zvikwereti zvemakore makumi matatu zvepfuma inofanira kupiwa zita rokuti "kuzviuraya kwehupfumi" nekuda kwezvavanenge vaita kuti varasikirwa nehupfumi hwevatenzi vanozvitenga uye vanovabata kusvikira vakura asi vanhu vachiri kuwedzera kwavari. Ichokwadi, kune mumwe munhu ane ruzivo kana mhuri, kutenga mutengo wemakore makumi matatu nemakumi matatu mumakore ekubhadhara mari pazvibereko zvaro zvezvino 2.72% isininine. Dambudziko racho rakanyanya kukura kupfuura kutenga zvigadzirwa zvinogona kana kuti zvisingakureri kana kuderera muhuwandu nehuwandu ne50% kana kupfuura kwemakore akawanda paunotanga kurondedzera "njodzi" semukana wenguva refu wekurasika kwesimba rekutenga.
Kutarisa Kwaungaita Kushandiswa Kwezvitsuwa uye Bonds Kuchengetedzeka Mahofisi Maitiro Penguva Yekutengesa Kurara
Zvakatorwa pamwechete, kunyange zvakadaro, zvikwereti zvematokari zvinogona kukanganisa kusagadzikana kwezvisungo uye kubatsirwa kwezvisungo zvinogona kukanganisa kusagadzikana kwematokari. Nokubatanidza maviri acho mune imwe nzvimbo yemapatoliyo, zvinogona kunge iwe unogona kufara zvishoma nezvishoma, kusimba kusimbiswa nekusvika kusingatarisirwi kweimwe Kuwedzera Kuwedzerwa (zvikwereti zvakarasikirwa ne 90% zvekukosha kwavo pane imwe nguva zvakasangana zvakasiyana mumakambani akasiyana nezvokudya uye chinwiwa chinotakura zvakasiyana zvakasiyana nemafuta emafuta; kunyange chikwata chine mwero chingave chakaita kuti kugadziriswa zvive nyore nyore), rugare rukuru rwepfungwa, uye huwandu hukuru hwemari inowanikwa. Apo Federal Reserve haisi kuita zvisati zvamboitika kuongororwa nematongerwo emari uye mari yezvibereko inodzokera kumazinga akaenzana , zvinogonawo kunge iwe uchave wakagamuchira zvibereko zvakakwirira pane chikwereti chepodfolio, zvichireva mamwe mari asingaverengeki .
Pamusoro pechinyorwa ichi, zvinodzidzisa kunzwisisa kuti matanho uye zvisungo zvinoshandiswa sei mumapatotikiti akasiyana-siyana mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzakaoma dzakawanda dzekutsvaga kwepakutanga. Nokuda kweizvi, ndichaenda kune imwe yegoridhe yemitemo yekuisa mari yekuchengetedza rekodhi, Ibbottson & Associates Classic Yearbook , yakabudiswa ne Morningstar.
Kutanga, ngationgororei kumadzoka gore negore kwegore rimwe chete. Tichitarisa nguva dzenguva ya1926 na1910, zvakasiyana zvakadini zvemabhizimisi makuru ehurumende uye hurumende yehurumende kwenguva yakareba inoita pasi pekunakisisa uye yakaipisisa mamiriro ezvinhu?
- A portfolio ya 100% mashizha yakaunza kudzoka kwayo kwakanyanya muna 1933 apo yakakura ne 53.99%. Izvo zvakakonzera zvakaderera zvakadzoka muna 1931 apo yakarasika 43.34% yehuwandu hwayo. Kunze kwemakore 85 panguva yekuyera, kudzoka kwaive kwakanaka muna 61 emakore iwayo uye kusina nguva nguva yose. Munguva iyo makore 85, iyo yose-stock portfolio yaiva yepamusoro-soro yekudzoka kubva pamasitoreti emashamba / ezvisungo mumakore 52. I arithmetic annualized average compounding rate yei nguva dzose yaiva 11.88% pagore.
- Imwe nyanzvi yematokari uye zvisungo zvakapatsanurwa makumi mapfumbamwe nemakumi mashanu ematokari uye 10% zvisungo zvakakonzera kudzoka kwakanyanya muna 1933 apo yakakura ne 49.03%. Izvo zvakagadzira zvakaderera zvakadzoka muna 1931 apo yakarasika 39.73% yehuwandu hwayo. Kubva pane makore 85 panguva yekuyera, kusanganiswa uku kwemasokisi uye zvisungo zvaive zvakanaka mumakore makumi matanhatu emakore iwayo uye zvisina kunaka nguva yose. Munguva yemakore 85 aya, yakanga isina kumbobvira yakanyanya kudzoka puroferensi yakaenzaniswa nedzimwe kusanganiswa kwematokisi uye zvisungo. Iyi arithmetic annualized average yekugadzirisa kuwanda kwemazuva ose yaiva 11.25% pagore.
- Imwe nyanzvi yematokari uye zvisungo zvakapatsanurwa makumi manomwe ematokari uye makumi matatu ezvisungo zvakakonzera kudzoka kwayo muna 1933 apo yakakura ne 38.68%. Izvo zvakakonzera zvakaderera zvakadzoka muna 1931 apo yakarasika 32.31% yehuwandu hwayo. Kubva pane makore 85 panguva yekuyera, kusanganiswa kwemasikisi uye zvisungo zvakakosha mumakore makumi matanhatu emakore iwayo uye zvisina kunaka nguva yose. Munguva yemakore 85 aya, yakanga isina kumbobvira yakanyanya kudzoka puroferensi yakaenzaniswa nedzimwe kusanganiswa kwematokisi uye zvisungo. I arithmetic annualized average yekugadzirisa chiyero chemazuva ose yaiva 10.01% pagore.
- Imwe nyanzvi yematokari uye zvisungo zvakakamurwa makumi mashanu ematokari uye 50% zvisungo zvakakonzera kudzoka kwayo muna 1995 apo yakakura ne 34.71%. Izvo zvakakonzera zvakaderera zvakadzoka muna 1931 apo yakarasika 24.70% yehuwandu hwayo. Kubva pane makore 85 panguva yekuyera, kusanganiswa uku kwemasokisi uye zvisungo zvaive zvakanaka mumakore makumi matanhatu emakore iwayo uye zvisina kunaka nguva yose. Munguva yemakore 85 aya, yakanga isina kumbobvira yakanyanya kudzoka puroferensi yakaenzaniswa nedzimwe kusanganiswa kwematokisi uye zvisungo. I arithmetic annualized average compounding rate yei nguva dzose yaiva 8.79% pagore.
- Imwe nyanzvi yematokari uye zvisungo zvakaparadzaniswa makumi matatu nemakumi matatu ematokari uye 70% zvisungo zvakakonzera kudzoka kwayo muna 1982 apo yakakura ne 34.72%. Izvo zvakakonzera zvakaderera zvakadzoka muna 1931 apo yakarasika 16,95% yehuwandu hwayo. Kubva pane makore 85 panguva yekuyera, kusanganiswa uku kwemasokisi uye zvisungo zvaive zvakanaka mumakore makumi matanhatu emakore iwayo uye zvisina kunaka nguva yose. Munguva yemakore 85 aya, yakanga isina kumbobvira yakanyanya kudzoka puroferensi yakaenzaniswa nedzimwe kusanganiswa kwematokisi uye zvisungo. I arithmetic annualized average compounding rate yemazuva ose yaiva 7.61% pagore.
- Imwe nyanzvi yematokari uye zvisungo zvakakamurwa 10% mashomanana uye 90% zvisungo zvakakonzera kudzoka kwayo muna 1982 apo yakakura ne 38.48%. Izvo zvakakonzera zvakaderera zvakadzoka muna 2009 apo yakarasika 11.23% yehuwandu hwayo. Kubva pane makore 85 panguva yekuyera, kusanganiswa uku kwemasokisi uye zvisungo zvaive zvakanaka mumakore makumi matanhatu emakore iwayo uye zvisina kunaka nguva yose. Munguva yemakore 85 aya, yakanga isina kumbobvira yakanyanya kudzoka puroferensi yakaenzaniswa nedzimwe kusanganiswa kwematokisi uye zvisungo. Iyi arithmetic annualized average yekugadzirisa chiyero chemazuva ose yaiva 6.45% pagore.
- Chimwe chikwereti chezvisungo zve 100% chakaunza kudzoka kwakanyanya muna 1982 apo yakakura ne40.36%. Izvo zvakakonzera zvakaderera zvakadzoka muna 2009 apo yakarasika 14.90% yehuwandu hwayo. Kunze kwemakore 85 panguva yekuyera, kudzoka kwaive kwakanaka mumakore makumi matanhatu emakore iwayo uye kukanganisa nguva yose. Munguva iyo makore 85, iyo yose-bond bondfolio yaiva yepamusoro-soro yekudzoka kubva pamasanganisitiri ose ematokisi uye zvisungo 33 nguva. Iko arithmetic annualized average yekugadzirisa chiyero chemazuva ose yaiva 5.88% pagore.
Sezvaunogona kuona kubva pane zvakadzama deta zvakasarudzwa, kusanganiswa kwematokisi uye zvisungo mumapatotipu zvinogadzira rudzi rwekuenderera mberi. Pachitsva chemafuta, iwe unofanirwa kudzoka zvakanyanya asi kubudirira kwezvinhu izvi zvinoda iron, nerve yesimbi, uye yakagadzirirwa kuunganidzwa kwemari. Muna 33 kubva pamakore 85, wakapedza gore rakashata kupfuura iwe pakutanga kwegore iroro. Mumuenzaniso wakaipisisa, wakaona 43.34% yemari yako inokosha inokwira muutsi. Kuisa izvi mukutarisa, zvakadai sekuona $ 500,000 pasi pepodhokisi pasi ne $ 216,700 kusvika $ 283 300 mumakore gumi nemaviri. Vanhu vazhinji havagone kubata mamiriro ezvinhu akadaro pasinei nehutano hwehuwandu hunoratidzika kuva humwe hunobudirira zvikuru uye, nenzira yakasiyana-siyana, kwenguva refu, yakachengeteka, nzira dzokuvaka upfumi . Kune rumwe rutivi, wakaona mutengo wakakwana wezvisungo zvinounza zvinhu zvakaderera zvinodzoka zvichifananidzwa nematokisi. Zvinhu zvose muhupenyu zvine mari yekutengeserana uye kuwedzera mari yako hazvisi izvo.
Iyo inonaka inoratidzika kuvapo pane imwe nzvimbo pakati. Imwe nhengo yehafu yezvisungo uye hafu yezvikwata hazvina kungobereka zvakanaka kudzoka , yakave yakanaka muna 66 kubva pamakore 85. Izvozvo zvinoreva kuti iwe wakanga uine makore makumi mana mushure mekunge iwe wakanga uri murombo pakupera kwegore kupfuura iwe pawakatanga, kana zvichienzaniswa nemazita ezita. Icho chiitiko chakasiyana zvikuru kupfuura chikamu chese-equity chikoro chaive nemakore makumi maviri nemaviri zvichidzika pamusoro penguva yakafanana yenguva. Kana rugare rwepfungwa kubva mukugadzikana kwakanyanya kweporofigheti rakaparadzana zvakafanana pakati pezvikwereti uye zvisungo zvinokubvumira kuti urambe uripo, zvingave zvakakonzera mhuri yako kuguma nemari yakawanda kudarika iwe ungadai wakamboedza kumira pamwe chete- inotyisa pure stock asset allocation. Uyu ndiwo musiyano pakati pemari yezvemari, iyo inotarisa zvakakosha, uye mafambiro emitemo, izvo zvinotarisa zvakanakisisa zvinogadziriswa zvakapiwa mamiriro evanhu nezvimwe zvinoshandiswa.
Ngatitarisei Mamwe Mapurisa Anowanikwa Maoko uye Mabhizimisi Emakore Anopfuura makumi maviri ekudzoka
Kudzoka kwegore negore kunonakidza asi, zvakare, ndezvekugara kwenguva refu. Ngatitangei rimwe danho rinopfuurira kupfuura data yegore negore ratinenge tichiongorora uye tarisa kuti mapepafisi aya aya akaitwa sei zvichienderana nekukwira kwemakore makumi maviri emakore. Izvi zvinoreva kuti kushambadza muna 1926 kwaizotarisirwa pakupera kwa1946, kukohwa muna 1927 kwaizotarisirwa pakupera kwa1947, nezvimwe zvakadaro. Ndapota cherechedza kuti zvikwata izvi hazvirevi chero zvevashandi vekugadzirisa zvinhu zvinowanzosimudzirwa kushandisa, zvakadai sedhora rinodhura , izvo zvinogona kubatsira kubhadhara nguva yakanaka uye yakaipa, manheru anobuda. Muenzaniso wakanaka, wauchaona munguva pfupi, ndeye 1929-1948, panguva iyo iyo yose-stock portfolio yakakura ne3.11% chete. Zvisinei, dai iwe waive uchida mari panguva iyi, uye kwete kungova nemari yemuvambo pakutanga, kudzoka kwako kwaizove kwakakwirira zvakanyanya sezvo iwe wakatora umiri mune mamwe mabhizimisi makuru pamitengo inowanzoonekwa kamwechete kamwe chete mazera mashoma. Zvechokwadi, hazvina kutora nguva yakareba kuti idzoke kubva kuUkudarika Kukuru asi kusanzwisisana pamusoro pehuwandu hwekuti nhamba idzi dzinowanzonzi dzinowanzovhiringidza sei varimi vasina ruzivo.
- Imwe mahofisi e 100% ematokari yakabudisa makore makumi maviri anopfuura makumi maviri ekudzoka kwekudzoka pakati pa1980 na1999 apo yakawedzerwa ne17,88% pagore. Iyo yakaona yakaderera yakadzoka pakati pa1929 na1948 apo yakawedzerwa ne3.11% pagore. Iyi arithmetic annualized average rate yekusanganiswa kwemazuva ose yaiva 11.30%.
- Pane imwe nzvimbo yematokari uye zvisungo zvakagoverwa 90% ematokari uye 10% zvisungo zvakakonzera makore makumi maviri anopfuura makumi maviri ekudzoka kubva pakati pa1980 na1999 apo yakawedzerwa ne17.28% pagore. Iyo yakaona yakaderera yakadzoka pakati pa1929 na1948 apo yakawedzerwa ne 3.58% pagore. Aritumeni annualized average rate yekusanganiswa kwemazuva ose yaiva 10.84%.
- Pane imwe nzvimbo yematokari uye zvisungo zvakapatsanurwa makumi manomwe emazana ematokari uye 30% zvisungo zvakaunza makore makumi maviri anopfuura makumi maviri ekudzoka kwekudzoka pakati pe1979 ne1999 apo yakawedzerwa ne16.04% pagore. Iyo yakaona yakaderera yakadzoka pakati pa1929 na1948 apo yakawedzerwa ne 4.27% pagore. Iyi arithmetic annualized average rate yekusanganiswa kwemazuva ose yaiva 9.83%.
- Pane imwe nzvimbo yematokari uye zvisungo zvakakamurwa makumi mashanu ematoro uye 50% zvisungo zvakakonzera makore makumi maviri anopfuura makumi maviri ekudzoka kwekudzoka pakati pe1979 ne1999 apo yakawedzerwa ne14,75% pagore. Iyo yakaona yakaderera yakadzoka pakati pa1929 na1948 apo yakawedzerwa ne 4.60% pagore. I arithmetic annualized average rate yekusanganiswa kwemazuva ose yaiva 8.71%.
- Pane imwe nzvimbo yematokisi uye zvisungo zvakaparadzaniswa makumi matatu nematatu ematokari uye 70% zvisungo zvakaunza makore makumi maviri anopfuura makumi maviri ekudzokorora kudzoka pakati pa1979 na1999 apo yakawedzera 13.38% pagore. Iyo yakaona yakaderera yakadzoka pakati pe1955 na1974 apo yakawedzerwa ne 3.62% pagore. I arithmetic annualized average rate yekusanganiswa kwemazuva ose yaiva 7.47%.
- Imwe nyanzvi yematokari uye zvisungo zvakapatsanurwa 10% mashomanana uye 90% zvisungo zvakaunza makore makumi maviri anopfuura makumi maviri ekudzokorora kudzoka pakati pa1982 na2001 apo yakawedzerwa ne 12.53% pagore. Iyo yakaona yakaderera yakadzoka pakati pe1950 na1919 apo yakawedzerwa ne 1.98% pagore. The arithmetic annualized average rate of compounding for all periods was 6.12%.
- Chimwe chikwereti chezvisungo zve 100% chakaita makore makumi maviri anopfuura makumi maviri ekudzoka kwekudzoka pakati pa1982 na2001 apo yakawedzerwa ne12.09% pagore. Iyo yakaona yakaderera yakadzoka pakati pe1950 na1919 apo yakakonzerwa ne 0.69% pagore. Iyi arithmetic annualized average rate yekubatanidza kwemazuva ose yaiva 5.41%.
Zvakare, kunyange pamakore makumi maviri emakore ekugadzirisa, sarudzo pamusoro pekusanganiswa kwakanaka kwematokisi uye zvisungo mubasa rako rezvemabhizimisi zvakabatanidza kushandiswa-kubva pakati pekusimudzika (sekuenzaniswa nekushaya simba) nekudzoka kweramangwana. Kwaunoda kumira iwe pachako nenzira iyo inogona kugoverwa, kufungidzira ruzivo rwemuzamu hunoenderana nekusangana kwekare, kunobva pane zvakasiyana-siyana kubva pane yako nguva yakareba kusvika pakuderera kwako mupfungwa.
Nzira iyo Asset Yakagoverwa Pakati Pezvitoro uye Bonds Zvingave Zvichishandura Penguva Yakave Izvo Mutengi Asingadzokeri Purogiramu Yake
Chimwe chezvinhu zvinonakidza zvinonyanya kuiswa paunenge uchitarisa kuti zvikwata zvemahofisi zvakaitwa sei munguva yakareba zvichienderana nehuwandu hwavo hwekugoverwa kwemafaji pakati pezvikwata uye zvisungo ndezvekutarisa kumagumo ekupedzisira. Nokuti iyi data yakagadzirirwa, zvakare, ndiri kupedzisa musi waDecember 2010 nekuti ndiyo inonyanya kukosha, data yepamusoro yepamusoro yemari inowanikwa kwandiri panguva iyo uye mutengesi wemombe pakati pa2011 ne2016 ingongoshandiswa kuita kuti inodzokera kumusoro chikamu chikuru. Izvi zvinoreva kuti, zvikamu zvezvikamu zvaizokura kuti zvive zvikamu zvepamusoro zvezvikwata zvemahofisi kupfuura ini ndiri kuda kuratidza iwe kuitira kuti zvigumisiro zvitsva hazvigone kuchinja.
Kune imwe nzvimbo yakagadzirwa muna 1926 kuti iitwe pasina kubatanidza chero chipi zvacho, chii chikamu chemari yekupedzisira inogona kupera muhutano zvichienderana nemhando yematokari; kuti ivo vanomiririra muridzi mune mabhizimisi anobereka izvo, sekirasi, zvinowedzera kuwedzera nekufamba kwenguva? Ndine mufaro wakabvunza!
- Imwe nyanzvi yakatanga nekusanganiswa kwematokisi uye zvisungo zvakakosha kusvika 90% kusvika kune yekare uye 10% kusvika kune yekupedzisira ingadai yakaguma ne 99.6% mashizha uye 0.4% zvisungo.
- Imwe nyanzvi yakatanga nekusanganiswa kwematokari uye zvisungo zvakakura makumi manomwe kubva kune makumi manomwe kusvika kuzana kusvika kune makumi matatu kubva kune makumi matatu kubva kune makumi mashanu kusvika kune makumi maviri kubva kune makumi mashanu kubva kune makumi mashanu kusvika kuzana kubva kuzana kusvika kuzana kubva kuzana kusvika kuzana kubva kuzana kusvika kuzana kubva kuzana.
- Imwe nyanzvi yakatanga nekusanganiswa kwematokari uye zvisungo zvakaenzana makumi mashanu kubva kune makumi mashanu kubva kune makumi mashanu kusvika kune makumi mashanu kusvika kune makumi mashanu kubva kune makumi mashanu kubva kune makumi mashanu kubva kune makumi mashanu kubva kune makumi mashanu kubva kune makumi mashanu kusvika kuzana kubva kune makumi matatu kusvika kuzana.
- Imwe nyanzvi yakatanga nekusanganiswa kwematokari uye zvisungo zvakaenzana ne30% kune yekare uye 70% kusvika kune yekupedzisira ingadai yakaguma nezvika 92.5% uye 7.5% zvisungo.
- Imwe nyanzvi yakatanga nekusanganiswa kwematokari uye zvisungo zvakakura zvakapetwa 10% kune yakambomira uye 90% kusvika kune yekupedzisira ingadai yakaguma ne 76.3% maoko uye 23.7% zvisungo.
Chii chinotonyanya kushamisa ndechokuti chikamu chezviyo muzvikwereti izvi zvematokisi uye zvisungo zvinenge zvichinyanya kugadziriswa mune zvishomanana zve "superwinners", nekuda kwekushaya nguva iri nani. Vashambadziri vasina ruzivo kazhinji vanokundikana kunzwisisa kuti kunyanya kukoshesa hukama hwemasvomhu dzechiitiko ichi ndechekuti pfuma yakawanda inowanikwa. Chaizvoizvo, munzira, imwe nzvimbo yekubata ichaenda. Muzviitiko zvizhinji, izvi zvicharamba zvichiramba zvakanaka, sezvakaita Eastman Kodak kuitira vashandi venguva refu kunyange mushure mokunge mutengo wadzo wakaenda kune zero, chokwadi chokuti vashandi vakawanda vatsva havakwanisi kunzwisisa nekuda kwechirevo chekudzoka kwenyika . Kune rumwe rutivi, makambani mashomanana - kazhinji makambani ayo haungagoni kufanotaura zvizere mberi kwemazuva - achanyanya kudarika zvinotarisirwa, achabvongodza zvinhu zvose kubva mumvura, achikwevera mberi kudzoka kwehuwandu hunoti.
Mumwe muenzaniso unozivikanwa weiyi ndiro chikepe cheWall Street, Voya Corporate Leaders Trust, yaimbozivikanwa seIng Corporate Leaders Trust. Yakatanga zvakare muna 1935. Mutungamiri wenzvimbo yemutoro ane basa rekuisa pamwe chete akasarudza kuunganidza 30 bluu chip stocks , iyo yose yakabhadhara zvikamu . Pakati pemakore makumi mapfumbamwe nematanhatu pakati pekuumbwa kwayo muna 1935 uye ikozvino, yave ichigadziriswa zvakashata kusvika painoita kuti index index ione kusinganzwisisiki yakashata (izvi zvinoreva kuti mari inotarisa mari, kunyange S & P 500 index index, haisi kunyanya kushandiswa kwemari pasinei nekushambadzira mabhuku kunopesana. Vanotungamirirwa nekomiti). Yakaputsa zvose Dow Jones Industrial Average uye S & P 500 kupfuura iyo nguva yakatarwa. Kuburikidza nekubatana, kuwanikwa, kutsvaga, kupatsanurana, uye nezvimwe, mari yacho yakaguma nekodhidziro yemapurisa makumi maviri nemaviri. 14,90% yezvinhu zvakasimwa muUnited Pacific, iyo gwara guru, 11.35% inotengeswa muBerkshire Hathaway , ikambani inobata mabhiriyoniire Warren Buffett , 10,94% inotengeswa muExx Mobil, chikamu chehurumende yekare yeHelp Oil Oil, 7.30% inotengeswa muPrairir, gorozi remabhizimisi, mabhizimisi, uye makambani, 5.92% inotengeswa kuKevron, imwe chikamu chehurumende yekare yeHelp Oilfrey yaJohn D. Rockefeller, 5.68% inotengeswa muProter & Gamble giant, uye 5.52% inotengeswa muHunwellwell, iyo inoshandiswa mumabhizimusi titan. Dzimwe nzvimbo dzinosanganisira AT & T, Dow Chemical, DuPont, Comcast, General Electric, uye kunyange mutengesi wezvokudya Foot Locker. Imitero inoderedzwa yakawanda , ichiita sorudzi rwemari yekutanga kutenga uye kubata varairidzi .
Ndezvipi Zvinorehwa neZvose Zvese Dzemabhiza pamusoro pebasa reSvondo neBonds pane Portfolio?
Kunze kwokuva kufadza kune avo vanoda kudyidzana, pane zvimwe zvidzidzo zvinokosha zvekutora kubva munhaurirano iyi pamusoro pekuita kwechiitiko chekusanganiswa kwakasiyana kwezvikwata uye kusungirwa mune chikwereti. Kuti ikubatsire, heanoi mashomanana:
- Sangano nezvisungo zvinoita zvakasiyana pasi pemamiriro akasiyana, zvichiita kuti zvibatsire kana zvichisungirwa mune imwe nzvimbo yepamusoro. Zvinogona kuva kuedza kuenda kune imwe yakanyanyisa kana imwe asi izvi hazviwanzobvumirwi.
- Kana nhoroondo yakapfuura ichizvidzokorora, yakachengeteka kutaura kuti iyo yakasimudza chikamu chechibvumirano mune huwandu hwekutsvaga kwekutsvaga, iyo yakanyanyisa, sezvinotaridzwa nemazita ezita, chikwereti chako chichava. Zvisinei, izvi zvingangodaro zvinouya pamutengo wekuderedzwa kwepasi. Kune rumwe rutivi, maitiro ezvoupfumi anoratidza vanhu vanowanzoomerera nepurogiramu yavo yenguva refu zviri nani apo kusagadzikana kwakaderera, zvinoreva kuti zvinogona kukonzera kukwirira kwechokwadi kwenyika kudzoka nekuda kwekunyaradza kwehupenyu hwevanhu; iyo nguva yakawanda isiri iyo chishuwo chekuti "ita chimwe chinhu" apo mari yakawanda yakaita seyanyangarika panguva yekupuka kwemusika.
- Pasi pemagariro evanhu vanofarira, zvisungo zvinowedzera chikamu chepamusoro chekuwana mari kune imwe nzvimbo yepamusoro pezvikwereti, kubudisa huwandu hwemari inogona kushandiswa, kudzorerwa, zvipo, kana kuchengetwa. Isu tiri muchikwata chisingasviki zvachose uye, kusvika pamwero mukuru, chisina kukodzera. Hazvigoneki kuti zero-kufarira kuwanda kwemazingira inoramba ichienderera mberi mumakore gumi anotevera.
- Nheyo, seyese, inobereka zvikuru kune zvisungo zvekuti nguva yakareba nguva yakareba, zviri nani mikana inowanzoitwa mune imwe nzvimbo yechipfupa ichava inowanzowanda muzana yemari yekugovera kunze kwekuti muridzi wechikwata chekushambadzira achisarudza kugadzirisa (kureva kuti, vatengesa zvimwe zvigaro kuti vawedzere hukuru hwevamwe kuti vadzoke kune zvakananga, zvingadiwa).
- Makore akaipa angave akaipa chaizvo. Chinhu chimwe chete kuvatarisa pamapepa asi semumwe munhu akararama kuburikidza nehuwandu hwemashoko ezvinyorwa-dzakakurumbira, kuburikidza nazvo kune zvakanakira zvakasiyana, zvakaenzana nemusiyano pakati pekuverenga pamusoro pedutu guru mubhuku uye chaizvoizvo kurarama kuburikidza nechimwe chinotsika pasi pamusoro pako. Imwe nguva iyo isingarati ichitaridzika seyo pachedu iyo yakasimbiswa pane imwe nyaya yatakambokurukura kusvika ikozvino, nekuda kwekuti zvakafanana sei uye zvakatonyanya kutyisa njodzi yaimbova-in-600 yemakore yakave iyo Kukura Kwekukuru kwakaipedza mifananidzo, ndeye 1973-1974. Zvaive zvakashata kune vashandi vekuenzanisa pamapepa, asi vashandi venguva refu vaine pfuma yakawanda nekutenga mashizha pamitengo yekutengesa. Usazvidza zvaunofunga, uye kuti zvingaita sei kuti uite zvinhu zvoupenzi, kuti uone 50% yeupfumi hwako inopera mumoto weziso. Kuparara kwa1979 mumwe mufananidzo. Ndakambopa muenzaniso wekuti kurasikirwa kwaive kwakanyanyisa pamapepanhau kubva pachiitiko ichocho pandakaenzanisa zviitiko zvekare zvePepsiCo uye The Coca-Cola Company pa blog yangu yega. Kana iwe usingakwanise kubata chokwadi chokuti zvinhu zvakadai izvi zvichaitika kwauri sewe gweta, iwe uchave uri munguva yenguva isingafadzi. Hapana nzira yekudzivisa nayo uye ani zvake anokuudza kuti zvinokwanisika kuita izvi zvinenge zvakashata, kureva nhema kwauri, kana kuedza kukunyengedza neimwe nzira.
- Zvikwereti zvinowanzonyanya kufarira mukukumbira kwavo - dzimwe nguva zvinotyisa zvikuru, kunyanya ikozvino kuti United States yakabvisa mitemo yegoridhe uye vatengesi vakaratidza nguva uye nguva vachirwisa kuti havatsvaki chikwereti chakanaka chakakwana chokubhadhara mitero uye kutengesa kwezvinhu - asi chokwadi chavanoshumira semhando yeUnited Depression inshuwarisi kune zvimwe zvishandiso zvose zvayo. Nokurarama kubva kune chikamu chechibvumirano panguva apo mashizha ari kutengesa pane zvishoma zvezvokwadi yavo, yakakosha, iwe unogona kudzivisa kuvhara ugove hwako pachako panguva yakaipisisa. Zvechokwadi, semasikirwo sezvinonzwika, iwe uri mupfumi, iwe unowanzove uine mari yakawandisa yakawanda uye mari yezvisungo se peresenti yenhare yako yose. Kuti udzidze zvakawanda pamusoro pehurukuro iyi, verenga Kuda Kwakawanda Kwandinofanira Kuita Sei MuIndaneti Yangu ? , pandinokurukura zvimwe zvemashoko.
Pamashoko ekupedzisira, ndeyekukosha zvakanyanya paunosarudza kusanganiswa kwematokisi uye zvisungo iwe unoteerera pfungwa yekuchengetedza mitero inozivikanwa seasset placement . Izvo zvakafanana zvikwata uye zvisungo, zvakaenzana zvakaenzana, muzvikwereti zvakafanana zvekutengesa, zvinogona kutungamirira kune zvakasiyana-siyana zvakakosha zvinoenderana nezvikwereti zvichibva pane zvivako izvo zvivimbiso izvozvo zvinoitwa. Semuenzaniso, kune imba inonakidzwa nepamusoro yekutengesa mari, chikwereti chebhadhiro inoteresa inenge kaviri muyero semari inowanikwa mari. Zvingava zvakanakira kuisa zvisungo uye zvibereko zvepamusoro zvakabhadhara mumisasa yekuteresa seSIMPLE IRA paine mashizha asingabhadhari chikamu mumatareji ekubhadhara mari , zvichienderana nekukwanisika uye kunonzwisisika pasi pemamiriro akasiyana-siyana anotarisana nawo muhupenyu hwako. Saizvozvowo, haungambofi wakaisa chimwe chinhu sekusungirirwa kwemutero kwemaspala mahara muRoth IRA .