Ndiyo Real Estate Market Inoenda kuChash?

Zivai Zviratidzo Zvokunyevera uye Zvaunofanira Kuita Iye zvino

Muna 2017, vazhinji veAmerica vakatanga kushushikana kuti misika yematengesi yaizoputsika. Zvechokwadi, 58 muzana yevaya vakabvunzurudzwa vakabvumirana kuti kuchava ne "dzimba dzekugara uye kugadziriswa kwemari" mumakore maviri anotevera. Somugumisiro, 83 kubva muzana vavo vanotenda kuti inguva yakanaka yekutengesa. A

Zviratidzo Zvinonyevera

Pane zvizhinji zvezviratidzo zvekuti misika yemumba inotungamira munharaunda yekubwinya. Kunyanya kuputika kunowanikwa bedzi nokuti kubwinya kwebasa kwakapararira.

Chimwe chiratidzo chekubwinya kwebasa ndechekuti matengo emusha akawedzera. Nhamba dzemhuri dzemhuri dzemhuri dzinosvika pamakumi maviri nezana dzakakwirira kudarika kuwedzera kwenyika . Izvo zvakafanana na2005, apo dzaive makumi mapfumbamwe makumi matatu kubva muzana zvakanyanya kupfuura.

The Housing Bellwether Barometer inongorori yevashandi vomumba uye makambani ekubhadhara mari. Muna 2017, yakawedzera sezvakaitwa muna 2004 uye muna 2005. Izvo zvinoenderana nemusiki wayo, Stack Financial Management, uyo akashandisa kufanotaura matambudziko 2 008 emari . Saizvozvowo, SPDR S & P Homebuilders ETF yakasimuka mazana mana kubva munaMarch 2009. Yakaparadzanisa S & P 500 kukwira kwe 270 muzana.

The Case-Shiller national index inoratidzwa nepamusoro munaDisemba 2016. Mutengo unowedzera unowanikwa mune zvinomwe mumaguta. Imba yeDzimba muDenver neDallas ndeyepamusoro makumi mana kubva kuzana yepamusoro pekugara kwavo kwepamusoro. Portland uye Seattle mutengo ndiwo makumi maviri kubva muzana, uye Boston, San Francisco, uye Charlotte vane 10 muzana pamusoro pemisoro yavo.

Imba yemusha muDenver, Houston, Miami, neWashington, DC inodarika 10 muzana yepamusoro pane maitiro akachengetedzwa, maererano neCoreLogic.

Panguva imwe chete, dzimba dzinodhura dzakapera. Muna 2010, 11 muzana yezvikwereti zvekurenda munyika yose zvaive nezvikwereti kune mhuri dzepasi. Pakazosvika gore ra2016, iyo yakanga yanyura kusvika 4 muzana.

Kushayikwa ndiko kwakaipisisa mumaguta umo matengo emisha akawedzera. Semuenzaniso, mari yeColorado yekubhadhara mari inodhura yakawira kubva 32.4 kubva kune imwe chete kusvika kune 7.5 kubva muna 2010.

MunaMarch 2017, William Poole, mumwe munhu mukuru paCato Institute, akanyevera nezveimwe dambudziko re subprime. Akanyevera kuti 35 kubva muzana yemari yaFannie Mae yaida kutenga mortgage inshuwarheni. Ndizvo zvehutano muna 2006. Mune dzimwe nzira, zvikwereti izvi zvakaipa. Fannie naFreddie vakaburitsa tsanangudzo yavo ye subprime kubva pa660 kusvika ku620. Izvozvo zvinoreva mabhange haasati achidana vateresi nezvikero pakati pe 620 ne660 subprime. Poole ndiye aiva mukuru weBublic Reserve Bank yeKansas uyo akanyevera nezve subprime crisis muna 2005.

Muna 2016, 5.7 muzana yekutengesa kwemisha yose yakatengwa kuti vatsigire zvakare. Iyi "flip" dzimba dzakagadziridzwa uye dzinotengeswa zvishoma pasi pegore. Attom Data Solutions yakashuma kuti ndiyo inonyanya kukohwa kubva muna 2006, panguva yekupedzisira.

Iko 2008 Housing Market Crash

Vanhu avo vakabatwa mukuputsika kwegore ra2008 vakagumburwa kuti bubhu 2017 huchaendesa pane imwe kuparara. Asi yakakonzerwa nemasimba asingasviki. Chikwereti swaps chinogadziriswa zvakagadziriswa zvakadai sekuchengetwa kwekwereti . Hedge fund mameneja akaumba chido chakakura chezvikonzero izvi zvinonzi hazvina ngozi.

Izvo zvakagadzira chido chezvikwereti zvepamusoro zvaivatsigira.

Kuti zvizadzise chido ichi chemari yekubhadhara mari , mabhangi uye vatengesi vatengesi vakapa zvikwereti zvemusha kune chero ani zvake. Vakasimbisa subprime mortgage crisis muna 2006.

Sezvo vazhinji vasina kukodzera vatengi vakapinda mumusika, kuda kunowedzera. Vanhu vazhinji vakatenga dzimba semari yekutsinhanisa kutengesa sezvo mitengo yakaramba ichikwira. Vakaratidza kushamwaridzana kusinganzwisisiki , chiratidzo chebasa chero ripi zvaro.

Muna 2006, vashandi vekumba vakazobatwa nechishuvo. Apo kugoverwa kwekutsvaga kwekutsvaga, dzimba dzekugara dzakatanga kuwira. Izvo zvakaputika kubheta.

MunaSeptember 2006, National Association of Realtors yakataura kuti mutengo wemusha wakanga wawa kwekutanga muna makore gumi nemana. Inventory yakanga yakakwirira, ichipa mwedzi we7,5. MunaNovember, Dhipatimendi reMabhizimisi rakaratidza mvumo itsva yemusha yaiva 28 muzana yakadzika kupfuura muna 2005.

Asi iyo Federal Reserve haina kuteerera nyevero idzi. Yaifunga kuti hupfumi hwaive hwakasimba zvakakwana kuti hudze dzimba kubva pakunyura kwayo. Yakataura nezvekushanda kwakasimba, kuderera kwezvishoma , nekuwedzera mari yekushandisa. Yakavimbisawo kuti inoderedza kufara kwemari . Izvozvo zvingaita kuti hupfumi huwane zvakakwana kuderedza kukura.

Kudyidzana kusinganzwisisi ukuru uye kukanganiswa kwemari yekuchengetwa kwemari. Mabhangi akanga akashandisa "majojo akawanda" kuti atange zvidzidzo izvi zvitsva. Vakanyora mapurogiramu emakombiyuta akaisa mapeji ezvinyorwa zvekuchengetedza mari muzvikwata zvepamusoro uye pangozi. Zvikwata zvepamusoro-mungo zvakabhadharwa zvakanyanya asi zvaive zvingangove zvisingakanganisi. Zvisungo zviduku zvakanyanya zvakanga zvakachengeteka, asi zvakabhadhara zvishoma.

Izvi zvisungo zvakachengetwa zvisingazivikanwi zvepa subprime mortgages . Mabhangi akanga asina hanya nezvekwereti-kukosha kwevakweretesa nokuti vakadzorerazve mari yekugadzira pamusika wechipiri .

Iko kunokonzera bhomba nguva yaiva mamiriyoni evanhu vanofarira-chikwereti chete . Izvi zvakabvumira vakwereta kuti vawane mari shoma pamwedzi. Asi izvi zvikwereti zvehutengo zvinoshandiswa patsva pakakwirira pashure pemakore matatu. Vakawanda vevaimba veimba havana kukwanisa kubhadhara chikwereti. Ipapo dzimba dzeimba dzikawa uye dzaisagona kutengesa dzimba dzavo kune purofiti. Somugumisiro, ivo havana kutadza.

Apo nguva dzaive dzakanaka, zvakanga zvisina basa. Munhu wose akatenga zvikwata zvepamusoro-soro nokuti vakapa kudzoka kwakakwirira. Sezvo misika yemumba yakaderera, munhu wese aiziva kuti zvigadzirwa zvaikundira. Sezvo pasina munhu akazvinzwisisa, kukosha kwekugadzirisa kwezviwanikwa izvi kwakanga kusina kujeka.

Pakupedzisira asi kwete, vazhinji vevatengi veMBS vakanga vasina kungoita mamwe mabhangi. Vakanga vari varimi vari voga , mari yepensheni, uye hedge funds . Izvo zvakapararira dambudziko mumamiriro ose ehupfumi. Mari yeHedge yakashandisa zviyero izvi sechikwata chekukwereta mari. Izvozvo zvakagadzira kudzoka kwepamusoro mumakambani emombe, asi yakakurudzira kukanganisa kwekupi kwekuderera. Sangano re Securities uye Exchange Commission harina kutonga mari yemvura, naizvozvo hakuna munhu aiziva kuti yakawanda sei.

IFed haina kuziva kuti kuwa kwaiva kuputira kusvika munaMarch 2007. Yakaona kuti hedge fund dzimba dzarasikirwa dzingakanganisa hupfumi. Muzhizha rose, mabhanga haana kuda kupa chikwereti kune mumwe nemumwe. Vakanga vachitya kuti vaizogamuchira MBS yakaipa mukudzoka. Bhengi vakanga vasingazivi kuti vakawana chikwereti chakaipa sei pamabhuku avo. Hapana aida kubvuma. Kana vakadaro, ipapo kukweretwa kwavo kwaizoderedzwa. Zvadaro, mutengo wavo wekutengesa waizowa, uye vaisazokwanisa kuwedzera mari yakawanda yekugara mune bhizinesi. Misika yemabhiza inoona-yakasungwa muzhizha rose, sezvo vatengesi-varindi vakaedza kuona kuti zvinhu zvakashata zvakadini.

Nenguva yaAugust, chikwereti chakanga chakaoma zvikuru zvokuti Fed yaibhadhara mabhiriyoni $ 75 bhiriyoni. Yakanga ichida kudzorera kuvhara kwenguva yakareba zvakakwana kuitira kuti mabhanga kunyora pasi kurasikirwa kwavo uye kudzokera kubhizimusi yekukweretesa mari. Pane kudaro, mabhengi akamira achikweretesa kune vanenge vose.

Kuburuka kwepasi kwakange kuri kuitika. Sezvo mabhanhire akacheka kumashure ezvitoro, matengo emba akawira mberi. Izvo zvakaita kuti vamwe vakwereta vaende, asi yakawedzera zvikwereti zvakashata mabhuku ebhangi. Izvozvo zvakaita kuti mabhangi akweretwe zvishoma.

Zvikonzero Zvipfumbamwe Nei Kugara Kwemba Hasi Kwava Pedyo

1. Pane zvakawanda zvakasiyana pakati pemakakiti emba muna 2005 uye yemusika. Muna 2005, zvikwereti zvepa subprime zvainge zvisingasviki $ 620 mabhiriyoni uye zvakaitwa 20 muzana yemusika wemari. Muna 2015, vakawana $ 56 mabhiriyoni uye vakawana 5 muzana yemusika.
2. Mabhangi ave achikwidziridza zvikwereti. Maererano neCoreLogic's Housing Credit Index, chikwereti chakabva muna 2016 chaiva pakati pehupamhi hwepamusoro hwakatanga mumakore 15 apfuura. Muna Gumiguru 2009, chiyero cheFICO chaive 686, maererano ne Fair Fair. Muna 2001, chiyero chepakati chaive 490-510.
3. Kunyanya kukweretesa mitemo kwakaita kuti pave nemusiyano mu "flip" market. Vanokweretesa chete mari yehupfumi 55 muzana yemari yeimba. I "flipper" inofanira kuuya nevamwe vose. Munguva yechirwere chepriprime, mabanho akabhadhara 80 muzana kana kupfuura.
4. Nhamba yemisha inotengeswa mazuva ano i20 muzana pasi pekutanga kwekuputsika. Izvozvo zvinoreva kuti kune mwedzi mina chete inopa dzimba dziripo dzekutengesa. Somugumisiro, vanenge 64 kubva muzana veAmerica vane dzimba dzavo, vachienzaniswa ne68 muzana muna 2007.
5. Imba yekutengesa yakaderera nokuti kutengesa kunobatsira vechidiki kukwanisa kutanga basa nekutenga dzimba. Vakatarisana nebasa rakaoma rekumusika, vakawanda vakawedzera dzidzo yavo. Somugumisiro, iye zvino vari kutakurwa nezvikwereti chikoro. Izvo zvinoita kuti zvive nyore kuti vanogona kuchengetedza zvakakwana kutenga imba. Izvo zvicharamba zvichida zvishoma.
6. Nhare dzekumba dzakapfuura mari. Ivhareji yemari yekuwana-kusvika-dzimba yezvikwereti inodarika 30 muzana. Mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzemasvingo, yakasvibiswa kusvika 40 kana 50 muzana. Zvinosuruvarisa, nzvimbo dzemasvingo dzinosanganisirawo mabasa. Iko zvinoita kuti vechidiki vabhadhara mari yakawanda yekurenda kuti vave pedyo nebasa risina kubhadhara zvakakwana kutenga imba. Makumi makumi matatu nemaviri muzana ekutengesa kwekumba nhasi vari kuenda kokutanga nguva yekudzokera kumba, vachienzanisa ne40 muzana kare, vanoti NAR. Kazhinji, mutengi uyu ari 32, anowana $ 72,000 uye anokwereta $ 182,500 pamusha. Vakaroorana vaviri vanowana mari vanobhadhara $ 208,500, paavhareji.
7. Varidzi vepamba havasi kutora zvakaenzana kubva mumisha yavo. Imba yekuenzanisa yakasimuka kusvika ku $ 85 mabhiriyoni muna 2006. Yakaputsika kusvika pasi pe $ 10 mabhiriyoni muna 2010, uye yakagara imomo kusvika 2015. Pakazosvika gore ra2017, yakange yakasvika $ 14 mabhiriyoni. Obamacare ndechimwe chikonzero cheizvi. Kufungidzika mafungiro akawira pasi makumi mashanu kubva paAACA yapfuura. Muna 2010, 1.5 mamiriyoni vanhu vakaiswa. Muna 2016, 770 846 chete ndivo vakaita.
8. Vamwe vanhu vanotaura kuti dzimba dzehurumende dzenyika dzakapfuura nharaunda yavo ya2006. Asi kana vakashandurwa kwemakore gumi nemana ekutengesa kwezvinhu, ivo vanongowanikwa 2004 chete. Pakati pe2012 ne2017, matengo emisha akwira 6.5 kubva pagore paavhareji. Pakati pe2002 na2006, vakasimuka 7.5 kubva pagore. Muna 2005, vakawedzera 16 muzana.
9. Vashandi vekumba vanotarisa pamisha yekupedzisira. Misha mitsva yakakura uye inodhura. Ivhareji yepamusoro yeimba itsva yemhuri imwechete inenge 2 700 square mita. Iko kunofananidzwa ne 2 500 makumbo mana muna 2006.

Chii Chingaita Kuti Collapse Ive

Kuwedzera kwekuda kwekutora kwakakonzera kuparara munguva yakapfuura. Izvi ndizvo nokuti vanoita zvikwereti zvinodhura. Icho chinononoka kumusha kuvaka, kupera kwekugovera. Asi iyo inononoka kubhadhara chikwereti, icho chinoderedza zvakare pane zvinoda. Kakawanda, chikwata chinononoka uye chinogara chichiwedzera hachizogadziri dambudziko.

Ichokwadi kuti huwandu hwekutora huwandu hunotangira kupera kweimba muna 2006. Asi izvi ndezvikonzero nekuda kwevakakwereta vakawanda avo vaiva nechido chekukweretesa chete uye kugadziriswa kwezinga rekugadzirisa mari . Kusiyana nechikwereti chinowanzoitwa , zviyero zvinokwidzika zvinokwira pamwe chete nemari inotengeswa mari . Vakawanda vaivewo netsika dzekutanga dzemasera dzinodzorerwa shure kwemakore matatu. Apo Federal Reserve yakasimudza purogiramu panguva imwechete iyo inodzorerazve, vateresi vakawana kuti havagone kuwana mari. Imba yepamusha yakawira panguva imwe chete, naizvozvo avo vanotora chikwereti havagoni kubhadhara kana kutengesa imba. Ndicho chikonzero kutadza kwemitengo kwaive kwakanyanya.

Nhoroondo yemari yakabhadharwa mari inoratidza kuti Dhesi dzakakwira zvakanyanya zvakanyanya pakati pa2004 na2006. Mutengo wakanga uri wa200 muzana munaJune 2004, kaviri kusvika ku225 kubva muna December. Yakapetwa kaviri mitero zvakare, kusvika ku4.25 muzana, raDecember 2005. Mwedzi mitanhatu gare gare, chiyero chacho chaive 5.25 muzana.

IHedheni yakasimudza mitengo panguva yakareba zvikuru kubva muna 2015. Yakasimudza iyo kusvika ku5,5 muzana munaDisemba 2015. Yakasimudza iyo 1/4 nhepferero kusvika pakupera kwa2016, uye kusvika ku125 kubva muna June 2017 .

Imusika yemugove unogona kuwira kana mabanki nemari yehuta zvakadzokera kunekutsvaga muzvinhu zvinokuvadza zvemari. Izvi zvakagadziriswa zvaive chikonzero chikuru chematambudziko emari . Mabhanki akachera matanho ezvitoro uye akadzoserazve muzvikwereti zvinotsigira mari. Aya mabhizimisi aiva bhizimisi rakakura kudarika dzimba dzekutengesa pachavo. Ndicho chikonzero mabhenji akatengesa mari kune imwe munhu. Vaida kuti vatsigire zviwanikwa. Vakatora zvimedu kuitira kuti zvikwereti zvakashata zvakange zvakavanzwa mumatanda nezvakanaka. Zvadaro apo vakakwereta vakashaya, zvese zvakagadzirwa zvaifungidzirwa kuva zvakaipa. Ndicho chikonzero chakaita kuti kuparara kwe Bear Bear naLehman Brothers.

Ita Tarump hurongwa hurongwa hunogona kukanganisa kuwira mumatengo angatungamirira pakuwa. Congress yakaratidza kubvisa kubviswa kwekutora chikwereti chechido. Kubviswa ikoko kunokwana $ 71 mabhiriyoni. Inoshanda sehupfumi hwehurumende kumusika weimba. Kubhadhara mitero kunobatsira varidzi vepamba vane mari yakawandisa inokwana $ 195,400. Izvo zvakakura zvikuru kudarika $ 5,400 mutevedzeri wekodzero wevatengi vemari. Kunyangwe kana urongwa hwemitero huripo hunoita kuderedzwa, urongwa hwemitero hunotora zvakawanda zvekukurudzira. Chirongwa chaTrump chakakonzera kuderedzwa kwakakwana. Somugumisiro, vekuAmerica vangave vasisamboiti. Kana izvozvo zvikaitika, havakwanisi kutora zvishoma nezvekubhadhara chikwereti chinowanikwa. Indasitiri yeimba yepamusoro inopesana nehurongwa hwemitero.

Musika unogona kuparara kana chibereko chiripo kuUnited Treasury zvinyorwa zvakashandurwa . Ndiyo apo chido chekuda mari yeHidhealth shorty inenge yakakwirira kudarika nguva yakareba yezvibereko. Kazhinji zvigadzirwa zvenguva pfupi zvakaderera nokuti vatyairi havadi kuti kudzoka kwakanyanya kudyidzwe kwemakore mashoma. Apo izvo zvinopesana, zvinoreva varimi vanofunga kuti nguva shomanana inotyisa kupfuura nguva refu. Izvo zvinotyisa zvinokonzerwa nemusika wemari, uye zvinoratidza kuwanda kwepasi. Muchero wekurima wakavharidzirwa mushure mekusimuka kwegore ra2008, 2000, 1991, uye 1981.

Imba Dzimba Dzichawa?

Muimba yekupedzisira yekubhururuka, vashandi vekumba vanobvumidza kubvumidza kuvaka. Izvo zvakanga zvisingasviki mamiriyoni zana muna 1990 panguva yekuderera. Zvishoma nezvishoma zvakasimuka mumakore ekuma1990, zvinopfuura 1 mamiriyoni muna 1998. Zvakasara panguva iyo kusvika muna 2002, apo yakapfuura mamiriyoni 1.5. Iro rakagadzirisa rekodhi mamiriyoni maviri muna 2004 uye 2005. Muna 2006, matengo eimba akatanga kuwira. Vashandi vekumba vakatsvaga mvumo inopfuura mamiriyoni 1.5. Izvozvo zvakaderera kusvika kudarika mamiriyoni 1 muna 2007. Pakazosvika 2009, yakanga yanyura kusvika 500 000.

Vakatora zvishoma nezvishoma kusvika pamamiriyoni matatu muna 2017. Vanotarisirwa kukwira pasi, kusvika kune mamiriyoni 1,100 ne2020.

Iko Imba Yekugara Ichatanga Kupi?

Kuparara kwemusika inotevera kuchaitika muna 2026, maererano nepurofesa weHarvard Extension School Teo Nicholas. Anotsigira kuti pane imwe dzidzo naEconomist Homer Hoyt. Real estate booms-uye-busts yakatevera makore gumi nemasere kubva muna 1800. Zvimwe chete zvaiva Hondo Yenyika II uye stagflation.

Nicholas anoti 2017 imba yemisika yemakamuri iri muchikamu chekuwedzera. Chikamu chinotevera, chekudzivirira, hachizoitiki kusvikira mapato ekubhadhara ehurumende atanga kuwedzera. Kana izvozvo zvichiitika apo Fed inomutsa chibereko chekuda, inogona kukonzera kuparara.

Nzira Yokuzvidzivirira Sei Kubva Pakushata

Kana iwe uri pakati pevazhinji veAmerica vari kunetseka, saka kune zvinhu zvinomwe zvaunogona kuita kuti uzvidzivirire kubva kune chimbadzi chemaimba.

1. Tenga imba kuti ugaremo, kwete kuti flip. Zvikamu zviviri kubva muzvitatu zvemisha yakarasikirwa mumatambudziko emari yaiva yechipiri uye yechitatu misha. Apo mutengo wekutengesa wakaderera pasi pebhadharo, varidzi vakabva. Vakachengetedza dzimba dzavo, asi vakarasikirwa nemari yavo.
2. Tora yakagadzirirwa-kutora chikwereti. Sezvo chikwereti chekubhadhara chikwira, chikwereti chako chichagara chakafanana. Kana izvi zvichiti iwe unogona chete kutenga imba duku, saka itai. Izvo zviri nani pane kutora njodzi nekurasikirwa nayo gare gare.
3. Kana iwe ukawana chikwereti chakasiyana-siyana chikwereti, tsvaga kuti chidimbu chechikwereti chichava chei kana chichigadzirisa. Tora mari yekubhadhara kwemwedzi uye ita nechokwadi kuti unokwanisa kubhadhara nemari yako yazvino. Tora musiyano pakati pekubhadharwa kwemazuva anouya uye zvauri kuripa mazuva ano nechezasi yechibereko uye uchichengetedze. Nenzira iyo iwe uchava nemari yekubhadhara chikwereti chako kana mari yako inowira.
4. Tenga imba yakaipa munzvimbo yakanakisisa yaunogona kutenga. Iva nechokwadi chekuti nzvimbo yacho ine zvikoro zvakanaka, kunyange kana iwe usingafungi kuva nevana pachako. Vatengi vanogona. Iwe unogona kugara uchivandudza imba pamusoro pemakore kana mari yako inobvumidza. Vavakidzani vakanaka havatotambudziki zvakanyanya mukuderera kunotevera semashoma. Vachadzokorora zvakare kukurumidza.
5. Iva nechokwadi chokuti imba yako ine zvivako zvitatu. Izvozvo zvichakwezva mhuri kana uchida kudzorerazve.
6. Nzira yakanakisisa yokuzvidzivirira nayo ine nzvimbo dzakasiyana-siyana dzehupfumi . Dhiversification inoreva kusanganiswa kwakakwana kwematokisi , zvisungo, zvinhu uye kuenzanisa mumba mako. Vazhinji varongeri vezvemari havakwanisi kuisa musha kuenzana sefa, asi vanofanira. Ndiyo nzvimbo yakakura yevanhu vakawanda.
7. Kugadzirisa kukanganisa kwekuputsa kwemaimba, kutenga imba duku kudarika iwe unogona kugara nayo. Edza kubhadhara chikwereti chako pakutanga, saka usarasikirwa neimba yako mukuderera. Wedzerai mari yako mumatanda, mabhandi, uye zvinhu kuitira kuti ivo vakwanise kana kupfuudza imba yako yakakwana. Kana paine hutengo hwemari muimba, usakundwa nechiedzo chekugadzirisa uye kubvisa kuenzana. Pane kudaro, dzokerazve kugoverwa kwepfuma yako kuti uite nechokwadi kuti ichiri kuenzanisa.