Nyanzvi Dzinofanotaura Kuwedzera Kuwedzera
Mutungamiri Trump akavimbisa kukura kwehupfumi kusvika 4 muzana. Icho chinokurumidza kudarika chinorarama. Kukura panguva iyoyo kunotungamirira mukunyanya kuzviratidza kusafara . Izvo zvinoita kuti pave nechokuita chinotungamirira kumunda unokuvadza . Tsvaga chinokonzera kuchinja uku mubhizimisi .
Overview
US GDP kukura ichakwira ku 2.7 muzana muna 2018, 2,4 muzana muna 2019, uye 2.0 muzana muna 2020. Izvo zvichienderana nezvakaitika munguva pfupi yapfuura yakabudiswa musangano weGreen Open Market Committee musi waMarch 20, 2018. Uku kuenzanisira kunofunga nezvehupfumi hwaTump mitemo .
Kubata kwehuwandu hwemabasa kuchadonhera kusvika pa8,8 muzana muna 2018, 3.6 muzana muna 2019 uye 3.6 muzana muna 2020. Izvo zviri nani kudarika Fed ya 6.7 muzana. Asi sachigaro weGeral Reserve Reserve, Janet Yellen, akabvuma kuti vazhinji vashandi venguva yakawanda uye vangada basa renguva yakazara. Uyewo, kuwedzera kwekushanda kwebasa iri mubhadharo rekubhadhara mari uye mazvigadzirwa zvekudya.
Vamwe vanhu vave vasina basa kwenguva refu zvokuti havazombokwanisi kudzokera kumabasa ekubhadhara zvakanyanya aimbova nawo. Izvozvo zvinoreva kusashanda kwemabasa kunowedzera. Izvozvi unhu hwakasiyana nedzimwe yekudzorera. Vanoitawo kuti uwandu hwemabasa husati huri pasi. Yellen akabvuma kuti kushaya kwehuwandu hwemabasa kwakarurama.
Yakapetwa kaviri yakawanda-yakatarwa.
Izvo zvichange zvichange zvive 1,9 muzana muna 2018, 2,2 muzana muna 2019, uye 2.1 muzana muna 2020. Mazana emitengo yekutengesa kwezvinhu inobvisa izvo zvinokonzerwa negasi uye zvokudya zvekutengesa . IFed inoshandisa kushandisa iyo yehuwandu painenge ichitonga mutemo wemari. Iko inokonzerwa nehuwandu hwekutengesa ichave ya1,9 muzana muna 2018, 2.1 muzana muna 2019 uye 2020. (Hazvisi zvisingatariswi kuti chiyero chemukati chinenge chakafanana nehuwandu hwekuwedzera kwezvishoma.) Nenguva iyo, muzinga wepakati uri pedyo neFed's 2.0 percent target target inflation . Izvozvo zvinopa Dhaka reMari kuti irere mitero kune imwe nzvimbo yakasununguka. Heino zvakawanda pamusoro peUnited Inflation Rate History uye Forecast .
US inoshandiswa inofanirwa kuwedzera nokukurumidza kudarika hupfumi. Kubudirira kuchakura 2.8 muzana muna 2018. Kukura kunononoka kusvika ku2,6 muzana muna 2019 uye 2 muzana muna 2020. Izvo zvifananidzi hazvina kufungisisa zvipikirwa zveMutungamiri Trump kuti awedzere mamwe mabasa .
Interest Interest
Sangano reWorld Open Market rakasimudza mari yazvino inopa mari inosvika ku5 muzana munaDisemba 2017. Inotarisira kuwedzera chiyero ichi chechibereko kusvika ku2 muzana muna 2018, 2.7 muzana muna 2019, uye 2.9 muzana muna 2020.
Iko inodyidzwa mari inotaridzika inotora nguva shomanana yenzara. Izvi zvinosanganisira mabhengi ' premime rate , Libor , yakawanda yakachinjwa-kutengesa uye chikwereti-chikwereti chete , uye chikwereti chekadhi.
Iwe unogona kuzvidzivirira kubva kuHed's rate hike nekusarudza zvikwereti zvakatarwa zvemahara chero pazvinogoneka.
Mari yakatanga kuderedza $ 4 trillion yayo muHarareurys munaOctober 2017. Yakatanga ichiti yaizoita izvi chete mushure mokunge mari yakadyiwa mari inowirirana kusvika ku 2.0 muzana. Asi FOMC yakasarudza kuti zvingava zviri nani kuratidza bhajiro rayo ikozvino. IFed yakawana idzi dzekuchengetedza panguva yekuchera kwehuwandu , iyo yakaguma muna 2014. Sezvo Fed haina kuzogadzirisa zvikwereti zvayo, ichaita zvimwe zvekugovera mumusika weHadurys. Iyo iyo inobatsira kusimudza chibereko pamakore gumi emakore . Iyo inoendesa mberi kwenguva yakareba chido chekuda, zvakadai sekugadziriswa -chiremba mari uye zvibvumirano zvekambani .
Asi Nhepfigheti inobereka inotarisawo kudiwa kwedhora. Kana kudiwa kuchikwira, zvibereko zvinodonha. Sezvo hupfumi hwenyika yose huri nani, varairidzi vave vachitsvaka zvishoma zvekutsvaga kwekuchengeteka kwakanyanya .
Somugumisiro, nguva yakareba uye yakagadziriswa inotora chikwata ichakwira muna 2018 uye mberi.
Nguva yekupedzisira iyo Fed yakasimudza mitengo yaiva muna 2005. Yakabatsira kubhadhara subprime mortgage crisis . Vazhinji veAmerica vanotenda kuti misika yematengesi ichaputsika mumakore maviri anotevera. Pane zvipfumbamwe kusiyana pakati pemusika wekumba kwe 2017 uye yemusika wa2007 unoita izvi zvisingaiti.
Mafuta neGesi Tari
IUn Energy Energy Administration inopa maonero kubva muna 2018-2050. Iyo inofanotaura kuti mitengo yemafuta yakawandisa ichasvika $ 57 / mbiya muna 2018. Izvozvo ndezveBrent pasi rose. West Texas Crude ichaenzanisa nepamusoro pe $ 4 / barrel pasi. IEIA yakanyevera kuti kune chimwe chichivhiringidza mumutengo. Yakataura kuti vatengesi vemabhizimisi vanotenda kuti mutengo unogona kuenzana pakati pe $ 48 / b uye $ 68 / b pamusi weKurusi 2018.
Imwe dollar yakasimba inonyanya kuderedza mafuta emafuta. Izvi zvinodaro nokuti zvibvumirano zvemafuta zvinotengeswa mumadhora. Makambani emafuta ari kuvhara vashandi, uye vamwe vanogona kutora chikwereti chavo. Mari yepamusoro yehupfumi mari haina kumboita zvakanaka.
Misika yemafuta ichiri kutarisa kune zvakakonzerwa neU.S. shale mafuta yekugadzira. Izvozvo zvinoderedza mitengo yeirimu 25 muzana muna 2014 uye 2015. Mashoko akanaka ehupfumi ndeokuti akaderedzawo mari yekufambisa, zvokudya, uye zvinhu zvakagadzirwa zvebhizimisi. Izvozvo zvakasimudzira purogiramu . Yakapawo vatengi mari yakawanda inodzingwa yekushandisa. Kuderera kunononoka ndekwokuti makambani nemhuri vari kuponesa panzvimbo yekushandisa.
IEIA simba rekuona kuburikidza ne2050 rinofanotaura kuwedzera kwemafuta emafuta. Pakazosvika 2025, mutengo weBrent wemafuta uchawedzerwa kusvika $ 86 / b (mugore ra20166, rinobvisa kukanganisa kwekuwedzera kwenyika). Mushure mezvo, nyika inoda kuti inotengesa mitengo yemafuta kusvika kune $ 117 / b muna 2050. Panguva iyoyo, zvishoma zvitsva zvemafuta zvichange zvanyanyisa, zvichiita kuti mafuta anonyanya kushandiswa anodhura.
Mabasa
The Bureau of Labor Statistics inoparidzira maonero emabasa ose gumi nerimwe. Inopinda mumashoko makuru pamusoro peimwe shizha uye basa. Pasi rose, BLS inotarisira basa rose rekuwedzera nemabasa emamiriyoni 20,5 kubva muna 2010-2020. Nepo 88 muzana yemabasa ose achawana kukura, kukura kunokurumidza kuchaitika muhutano hwehutano , kuchengetwa kwevanhu uye rubatsiro rwemagariro evanhu, uye kuvaka. Uyezve, mabasa anoda chikamu chedzidzisi achange achikura nokukurumidza apo avo vanongoda chikoro chesekondari vachakura zvishoma.
IQS inofunga kuti hupfumi huchadzoka zvakakwana kubva mukuderera kwemakore muna2020 uye kuti vashandi vachadzoka kumabasa akazara kana kushaya basa kwe4 kusvika kuzana. Kukura kunonyanya kukosha (mabasa emamiriyoni 5.7) kuchaitika muhutano hwehutano uye mamwe maitiro ekubatsira rubatsiro sevanhu veAmerica vane makore.
Kuwedzera kwekuwedzera kukuru (mamiriyoni 2.1 emabasa) kuchaitika mune zvehutano uye zvebasa. Zvose izvi zviri mumakombiyuta matsuro, kunyanya mafaira ekushandisa, uye sarudzo, svesayenzi, uye zvekugadzira mazano. Mabhizimisi achada mazano pakuronga nekugadzirisa zvinhu, kushandisa hutenga hutsva, uye kubvumirana nebasa rekuchengeteka kwebasa, zvakatipoteredza, uye basa.
Zvimwe kuwedzerwa kwakanyanya kuchaitika muzvidzidzo (mamiriyoni 1.8 emabasa), kutengesa (mamiriyoni 1,7 mamiriyoni) uye hoteli / mabikuri (mamiriyoni emabasa). Imwe nzvimbo ine mabasa akasiyana-siyana (mamiriyoni 1,6 emabasa). Izvo zvinosanganisira vanhu, vashandi vepanguva uye venguva pfupi, uye kushandiswa kwemarara.
Sezvo dzimba dzichidzoka, kuvaka kuchawedzera mabasa 1.8 mamiriyoni apo dzimwe nzvimbo dzekutengesa dzicharasikirwa nemabasa nekuda kwekombiyuta uye kutengesa.
Iyo Inokubata Sei Iwe
2018 ichava gore rakabudirira sezvo isu tichienderera mberi tichitaura kuti tibatsiro pamigumisiro yematambudziko emari. Iva wakatarisira kushamwaridzana kusinganzwisisiki mumusika wekutengesa . Izvozvo zvinowanzoratidza chikwata chebhizimisi . Izvozvo zvinoreva kuti kumwe kutengesa zvichida makore maviri kusvika matatu kunze. Zvose zvinoenderana nokuti Mutungamiriri weTrump's tax cuts achaumba mabasa aakavimbisa .
Nokudaro, chinhu chakanakisisa kuti ugare usina kuramba uchifunga nezvehupfumi hwako. Ramba uchivandudza unyanzvi hwako uye tora nzira yakajeka yebasa rako. Kana iwe wakabhadhara mumusika wekutengesa, nyarara pane chero kudhonza-shure. Kuputsa mitengo yezvinhu , kusanganisira goridhe , mafuta, uye kofi, ichadzoka kune zvinoreva. Zvose mune zvose, nguva yakanakisisa yekuderedza chikwereti, kuvaka mari yako, nekuwedzera pfuma yako.